The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Civil Defence In Europe An Initial Assessment
English Summary
The paper identifies that Europe's civil defense architecture is highly fragmented, creating a significant gap between nations with robust, whole-of-society systems and those that remain critically exposed. The core finding is that the modern threat environment, where the distinction between war and peace is increasingly blurred, demands a systemic overhaul of preparedness. Therefore, closing this defensive gap requires more than increased state spending; it necessitates a fundamental rethinking of how states, civil society, and the private sector collaboratively prepare for complex, non-traditional threats.
中文摘要
本文指出，歐洲的民防架構高度碎片化，在具備完善全社會動員體系的國家與仍處於極度脆弱狀態的國家之間，造成了顯著的鴻溝。核心發現是，在戰爭與和平界線日益模糊的現代威脅環境下，要求進行一次系統性的準備體系重構。因此，彌補這一防禦性缺口，需要的已不僅僅是增加國家開支；它更要求從根本上重新思考國家、公民社會和私營部門如何協同合作，以應對複雜的非傳統威脅。
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