The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
A Summit of Equals
English Summary
The recent U.S.-China summit failed to yield concrete agreements, signaling a mutual acceptance of the current, complex status quo. While discussions covered geopolitical flashpoints like Taiwan and Iran, both sides largely avoided addressing traditional U.S. complaints regarding overcapacity or IP theft, suggesting a withdrawal of structural pressure. The resulting concept of "constructive strategic stability" implies that both nations are prioritizing managing inevitable competition and buying time, rather than attempting fundamental policy changes. This suggests the U.S. has limited leverage to force deep reforms, leading to a realistic, yet challenging, relationship of equals.
中文摘要
近期美中峰會未能達成具體協議，顯示雙方相互接受了當前複雜的現狀。儘管討論涵蓋了台灣和伊朗等地緣政治熱點，但雙方普遍迴避了美國傳統上關於產能過剩或知識產權盜竊的指控，暗示結構性壓力有所減退。由此產生的「建設性戰略穩定」概念意味著兩國目前更著重於管理不可避免的競爭並爭取時間，而非嘗試進行根本性的政策轉變。這表明美國在強制推動深度改革方面影響力有限，導致雙方進入了一種現實但充滿挑戰的平等關係。
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