The White House (via OMB) strongly protests Congressional efforts within the FY 2027 NDAA to prohibit the purchase of warships from foreign shipyards. The Administration argues that these restrictions undermine national security by limiting flexibility and hindering its strategy of leveraging allied yards, such as in the 'Finland model,' to drive investment into U.S. shipbuilding capacity. This signals a significant policy shift toward integrating international partners into advanced naval construction, suggesting the Pentagon is prepared to bypass traditional domestic build requirements for future combat vessels.
Iran as Vietnam, Ukraine as Korea
English Summary
The article argues that major conflicts follow predictable historical structures, using historical analogies to forecast the outcomes of the current crises. It compares the US-Iran confrontation to the Vietnam War, predicting an unstable compromise settlement that leaves the ultimate fate of the regime and its nuclear program unresolved. In contrast, it draws parallels between the war in Ukraine and the Korean War, suggesting a more stable, durable armistice that solidifies the current lines of conflict. These structural patterns imply that policymakers should prepare for an unresolved status quo in the Middle East and a protracted, frozen-border stalemate in Eastern Europe.
中文摘要
本文論點指出，重大衝突往往遵循可預測的歷史結構，並利用歷史類比來預測當前危機的走向。文章將美伊對抗比擬為越南戰爭，預測其最終將會是一個不穩定的妥協解決方案，使得該政權及其核計畫的最終命運懸而未決。相比之下，文章則將烏克蘭戰爭與朝鮮戰爭進行類比，暗示這將會形成一個更為穩定、持久的停戰協定，從而鞏固當前的衝突線。這些結構性模式暗示，政策制定者應為中東地區的未決定的現狀，以及東歐地區曠日費時的邊界僵局做好準備。
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