The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Iran as Vietnam, Ukraine as Korea
English Summary
The article argues that major conflicts follow predictable historical structures, using historical analogies to forecast the outcomes of the current crises. It compares the US-Iran confrontation to the Vietnam War, predicting an unstable compromise settlement that leaves the ultimate fate of the regime and its nuclear program unresolved. In contrast, it draws parallels between the war in Ukraine and the Korean War, suggesting a more stable, durable armistice that solidifies the current lines of conflict. These structural patterns imply that policymakers should prepare for an unresolved status quo in the Middle East and a protracted, frozen-border stalemate in Eastern Europe.
中文摘要
本文論點指出，重大衝突往往遵循可預測的歷史結構，並利用歷史類比來預測當前危機的走向。文章將美伊對抗比擬為越南戰爭，預測其最終將會是一個不穩定的妥協解決方案，使得該政權及其核計畫的最終命運懸而未決。相比之下，文章則將烏克蘭戰爭與朝鮮戰爭進行類比，暗示這將會形成一個更為穩定、持久的停戰協定，從而鞏固當前的衝突線。這些結構性模式暗示，政策制定者應為中東地區的未決定的現狀，以及東歐地區曠日費時的邊界僵局做好準備。
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