The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Who will be the next UN Secretary-General? Rafael Mariano Grossi and Rebeca Grynspan each present their vision
English Summary
The UN is facing profound institutional pressure due to great-power divisions, funding crises, and questions regarding the selective application of international rules. Candidates Rafael Grossi and Rebeca Grynspan are presenting distinct visions for the next Secretary-General, drawing on their expertise in specialized areas. Grossi emphasizes navigating complex technical diplomacy, such as nuclear non-proliferation, while Grynspan focuses on equitable development and the interests of vulnerable economies. The core challenge for the incoming leader is to restore confidence in the rules-based multilateral framework and implement deep structural reforms to ensure the UN's continued relevance and funding stability.
中文摘要
聯合國目前正因大國分裂、資金危機，以及國際規則選擇性執行的問題，面臨深層的制度壓力。候選人拉斐爾·格羅西（Rafael Grossi）和蕾貝卡·格林斯潘（Rebeca Grynspan）針對下一任秘書長提出了各自的願景，並運用了其專業領域的知識。格羅西強調應處理複雜的技術外交議題，例如核不擴散；而格林斯潘則著重於公平發展和弱勢經濟體的利益。新任領導人核心的挑戰在於，必須恢復對基於規則的多元體系的信心，並實施深層的結構性改革，以確保聯合國持續的相關性和資金穩定性。
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