The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Why Egypt is helping to end the Iran war
English Summary
Egypt is actively mediating the Iran conflict not to gain regional influence, but as a calculated risk-management strategy to safeguard its national interests and stabilize its economy. Evidence of this includes forming a quadrilateral grouping with regional allies and engaging in backchannel diplomacy to push for de-escalation. Cairo's core objectives are securing freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, countering Israeli regional dominance, and ensuring continued foreign investment. While de-escalation is beneficial, the analysis suggests that Egypt's efforts alone will not resolve long-term geopolitical tensions, such as the dispute over Nile waters or regional power imbalances.
中文摘要
埃及積極介入伊朗衝突，其動機並非追求區域影響力，而是一種經過計算的風險管理策略，旨在維護國家利益並穩定經濟。證據顯示，埃及已與區域盟友組建四方集團，並透過非公開外交推動局勢降溫。開羅的核心目標包括確保紅海航行自由、應對以色列的區域主導地位，以及確保持續的外部投資。儘管局勢降溫是有益的，但分析指出，僅憑埃及的努力無法解決長期地緣政治緊張局勢，例如尼羅河水權爭議或區域權力失衡等問題。
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