The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Why Egypt is helping to end the Iran war
English Summary
Egypt is actively mediating the Iran conflict not to gain regional influence, but as a calculated risk-management strategy to safeguard its national interests and stabilize its economy. Evidence of this includes forming a quadrilateral grouping with regional allies and engaging in backchannel diplomacy to push for de-escalation. Cairo's core objectives are securing freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, countering Israeli regional dominance, and ensuring continued foreign investment. While de-escalation is beneficial, the analysis suggests that Egypt's efforts alone will not resolve long-term geopolitical tensions, such as the dispute over Nile waters or regional power imbalances.
中文摘要
埃及積極介入伊朗衝突，其動機並非追求區域影響力，而是一種經過計算的風險管理策略，旨在維護國家利益並穩定經濟。證據顯示，埃及已與區域盟友組建四方集團，並透過非公開外交推動局勢降溫。開羅的核心目標包括確保紅海航行自由、應對以色列的區域主導地位，以及確保持續的外部投資。儘管局勢降溫是有益的，但分析指出，僅憑埃及的努力無法解決長期地緣政治緊張局勢，例如尼羅河水權爭議或區域權力失衡等問題。
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