The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Evaluating Trump’s Trade Policy on Trump’s Criteria
English Summary
The CFR assessment finds that Trump's trade policy presents a mixed picture, with modest reductions in the goods trade deficit but a slow rebound in manufacturing's share of the economy. Key challenges include the persistent uncertainty surrounding tariff rates, which hinders the multi-year capital investments necessary for reshoring and reindustrialization. For the policy to achieve its goals, the administration must establish stable, predictable tariff structures and abandon traditional principles like Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) treatment. Ultimately, achieving investment certainty is critical for the U.S. to successfully boost domestic manufacturing and stabilize its trade relationship with key partners.
中文摘要
美國戰略與國際事務委員會（CFR）的評估指出，川普的貿易政策呈現複雜局面：雖然貨品貿易逆差有所縮減，但製造業佔經濟的比重卻緩慢反彈。主要的挑戰包括關稅稅率的不確定性持續存在，這阻礙了實現產業回流和再工業化所需的多年期資本投資。若政策要達成目標，政府必須建立穩定且可預測的關稅結構，並放棄最惠國待遇（MFN）等傳統原則。最終，達成投資確定性對於美國成功提升國內製造業並穩定與主要貿易夥伴的關係至關重要。
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