The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Can Turkey Find Its Way Back to Freedom? Authoritarian Consolidation Versus the Defense of Turkish Democracy
English Summary
The analysis concludes that Turkey has transitioned beyond competitive authoritarianism into a system of personal rule, centered on President Erdoğan's efforts to maintain power by criminalizing political dissent. This consolidation is achieved through the systemic capture of state institutions—including the judiciary and electoral bodies—and the use of mechanisms like the 'kayyum' trustee system to undermine democratic processes. Key evidence includes the widespread misuse of disinformation laws against journalists, the subversion of international human rights rulings, and the mass incapacitation of opposition figures and ordinary citizens. Strategically, this trajectory deepens internal political instability, suggesting that the regime’s actions increase the risk of a major backlash upon any eventual transition.
中文摘要
分析結論指出，土耳其已從競爭性威權主義轉型至個人統治體制。這種體制的核心是總統埃爾多安透過將政治異議定罪化來維持權力。其鞏固過程是透過系統性地掌控國家機構——包括司法和選舉機關——並利用「受託人」（kayyum）制度等機制來破壞民主程序而實現的。關鍵證據包括：大規模濫用虛假資訊法律針對記者、顛覆國際人權裁決，以及對反對派人物和普通公民的大規模限制行動。從戰略角度來看，這一軌跡加深了國內政治不穩定性，暗示著該政權的行為增加了在任何潛在過渡期發生重大反彈的風險。
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