The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Trump’s Iran Food Deal Could End Up Helping the Regime, Not Its People
English Summary
The article argues that a proposed deal to use frozen Iranian funds for purchasing U.S. goods is less a humanitarian effort and more an act of market engineering that risks repeating historical abuses like the Iraq Oil-for-Food scandal. The primary concern is that without independent oversight, the regime could weaponize aid by withholding resources from disloyal communities or diverting commodities to rearm its proxies. For policy, the report advises against a risky bilateral transfer and instead recommends the U.S. push for establishing an internationally managed UN Trust Fund. This fund must mandate expanded access for neutral UN agencies and NGOs to ensure that humanitarian goods reach civilians based on need, not political loyalty.
中文摘要
本文主張，一項擬議利用凍結的伊朗資金購買美國商品的交易，其本質並非人道主義行動，而更像是一種市場工程行為，有重蹈歷史覆轍、重現伊拉克「糧油交換計畫」（Oil-for-Food）醜聞的風險。主要的擔憂點在於，若缺乏獨立監督，該政權可能會將援助武器化，例如對不忠誠社區扣留資源，或將商品轉移用於重新武裝其代理人。因此，報告建議政策制定者避免進行高風險的雙邊資金轉移，而是應敦促美國推動建立一個由國際管理的聯合國信託基金（UN Trust Fund）。該基金必須強制要求擴大中立的聯合國機構和非政府組織（NGOs）的存取權，以確保人道物資能夠根據需求而非政治忠誠度傳達到平民手中。
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