English Summary
While the US has opted not to renew the USMCA for a full term, triggering an annual review process until 2036, this non-renewal does not signal the end of North American integration. The continued economic dependence—which supports trillions in trade and millions of jobs—makes withdrawal highly unlikely despite political tensions and tariff threats. Strategically, businesses must prepare for prolonged uncertainty and protracted negotiations across multiple sectors (e.g., auto rules, digital trade). Policymakers should focus on managing the ongoing review process to mitigate supply chain disruption and address shared concerns regarding Chinese overcapacity in the region.
中文摘要
儘管美國選擇不續簽《美墨加協定》（USMCA）的完整任期，觸發了直至 2036 年的年度審查程序，但此類非續簽並不意味著北美整合的終結。持續的經濟依賴性——這支撐著數萬億美元的貿易和數百萬個工作崗位——使得退出極不可能，即使存在政治緊張局勢和關稅威脅。從戰略角度來看，企業必須為長期不確定性和跨多個領域（例如汽車規則、數位貿易）的曠日費時談判做好準備。政策制定者應著重管理正在進行的審查過程，以減緩供應鏈中斷，並處理各方對區域內中國過剩產能的共同擔憂。
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