The article outlines how a successful modern foreign policy career requires blending traditional diplomatic expertise with private sector acumen. Juster's career trajectory—from international law to high-stakes diplomacy (e.g., the Gulf War) and subsequently to the technology sector—demonstrates this synthesis. Key evidence includes his work managing complex negotiations under duress and his involvement in co-founding the U.S.-India High Technology Group. The implication for policy is that effective geopolitical strategy must actively integrate private sector knowledge and technological considerations to manage modern economic and security challenges.
Why Nations Still Fight
English Summary
Analysis of post-1945 conflicts suggests that war is historically ineffective for achieving lasting security, wealth, or status, as states initiating conflict tend to fail their objectives. The primary driver for continued military action, however, is not material necessity but rather political miscalculation. Leaders often succumb to psychological biases and overconfidence, leading them to overestimate their chances of success despite available evidence of failure. This persistent desire among great powers for elevated status and prestige remains the most significant predictor of future conflict, regardless of the high costs involved.
中文摘要
對戰後1945年以來的衝突分析顯示，戰爭在實現持久安全、財富或地位方面，歷來是徒勞無功的。因為發起衝突的國家往往無法達成其既定目標。然而，持續進行軍事行動的主要驅動力，並非物質上的必要性，而是政治上的誤判。領導人常受心理偏差和過度自信的影響，導致他們即使面對失敗的證據，仍會高估自身成功的機率。這種大國對於提升地位和聲望的持續渴望，無論其代價多高，仍是預測未來衝突最關鍵的指標。
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