While the war in Ukraine may reach an inflection point and Russian forces are struggling, the article argues that Russia remains the primary long-term threat to European security regardless of the conflict's outcome. This assessment is based on the fact that despite internal weaknesses—such as a stagnating economy and poor demographics—Russia retains the capability and vested interest in destabilizing Europe’s existing security architecture. Policymakers must therefore prepare for sustained, multi-faceted Russian pressure and potential military reconstitution efforts, rather than focusing solely on immediate battlefield victories or defeats.
The Rise and Fall of the British Army, 1975–2025
English Summary
The article argues that the British Army has suffered a significant decline since 1975, despite extensive deployments across multiple conflicts (e.g., Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia). This shrinkage, which has reduced the force to half its original size, is attributed to a combination of successive government neglect, funding cuts, and poor strategic decisions made by senior military leadership regarding equipment procurement. Consequently, the current state of the army struggles to meet the demands of an increasingly complex and challenging security environment. Policy efforts must address systemic leadership failures and resource allocation to restore operational capability.
中文摘要
本文論述英國陸軍自1975年以來遭受了顯著衰退，儘管其曾部署於多場衝突（例如伊拉克、阿富汗、波斯尼亞）。這種規模縮減，已使其兵力銳減至原始的一半，歸因於歷次政府的忽視、資金削減，以及高級軍事領導層在裝備採購方面所做出的不當戰略決策。因此，當前陸軍的狀態難以應對日益複雜且充滿挑戰的安全環境。政策層面必須解決系統性的領導失誤和資源分配問題，才能恢復其作戰能力。
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