The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Iran War Is a Win for China
English Summary
The instability stemming from the Middle East conflict is argued to be a strategic advantage for China, significantly eroding U.S. global credibility. The resulting crises, including skyrocketing energy prices and military setbacks, have forced the U.S. to postpone high-level diplomatic engagements, such as the planned summit with China. This distraction and perceived decline in American focus create a power vacuum, allowing Beijing to accelerate its economic and geopolitical influence. Policymakers should anticipate that China will capitalize on this period of U.S. preoccupation to deepen its partnerships with regional actors and challenge established international norms.
中文摘要
本文提出，源於中東衝突的不穩定性，對中國而言構成了一種戰略優勢，極大地侵蝕了美國的全球信譽。由此引發的危機，包括能源價格飆升和軍事挫敗，迫使美國推遲了高層外交參與，例如原定的與中國的峰會。這種分心和美國關注度的下降，創造了一個權力真空，使北京得以加速其經濟和地緣政治影響力的擴張。政策制定者應預期，中國將利用美國的注意力分散期，深化與區域參與國的夥伴關係，並挑戰既有的國際規範。
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