The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Long Shadow of the Iran War
English Summary
The negotiated end of the Iran conflict represents a significant foreign policy failure for the United States, severely eroding its regional credibility and ability to guarantee stability. This vacuum is driving Middle Eastern states away from U.S. dependence, causing a sharp geopolitical realignment into rival coalitions (e.g., the Abrahamic bloc versus the Saudi-led Islamic coalition). Consequently, regional powers are asserting greater autonomy, while global competitors like China capitalize on this shift. Policymakers must recognize that the region is moving toward decentralized security arrangements, signaling a broader global trend of questioning U.S.-centered diplomatic and military structures.
中文摘要
伊朗衝突談判結束，代表了美國重大的外交政策失敗，嚴重削弱了其區域信譽和穩定保障能力。這一真空正在促使中東國家擺脫對美國的依賴，導致地緣政治發生劇烈重組，形成競爭性的聯盟（例如以亞伯拉罕為基礎的陣營與沙特主導的伊斯蘭陣營）。因此，區域大國正宣示更大的自主權，而中國等全球競爭者也正利用這一轉變。政策制定者必須認識到，該地區正在走向去中心化的安全體系，這預示著一個更廣泛的全球趨勢——即對以美國為中心的外交和軍事結構提出質疑。
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