The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Multipolar Delusion
English Summary
The article critiques the widely accepted narrative that the world has transitioned into a 'multipolar' era, arguing that this consensus is often treated as a self-evident fact rather than a proposition requiring scrutiny. It notes that major global powers, including the US, China, and Russia, are all adopting this language to signal the end of American unipolar dominance. For policy strategists, the implication is that the concept of multipolarity should be approached with skepticism, as the true global power structure may be far more complex or less fragmented than the prevailing narrative suggests.
中文摘要
本文批判了「世界已進入多極時代」這一廣泛接受的敘事，認為這種共識往往被視為不容置疑的事實，而非需要深入審視的命題。文章指出，包括美國、中國和俄羅斯在內的主要全球大國，都在採用這種語言來宣告美國單極霸權的終結。對於政策戰略家而言，其啟示是，應對多極化的概念抱持懷疑態度，因為真正的全球權力結構可能比主流敘事所暗示的更為複雜，或更不具碎片化特徵。
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