The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Why the Cease-Fire With Iran Will Hold
English Summary
The article argues that the recent cease-fire between the United States and Iran is structurally likely to hold, despite both sides claiming victory. This stability is attributed to the inherent constraints of the conflict itself, which forced both parties into a de facto draw. Using the analogy of a complex game, the analysis suggests that the structure of the geopolitical 'game' constrained the decision-making of all involved players. For policy, this implies that the conflict is entering a predictable endgame phase, suggesting a period of managed de-escalation rather than immediate, volatile escalation.
中文摘要
本文提出，儘管美伊雙方均宣稱取得勝利，但近期停火協議在結構上具有持續的可能性。這種穩定性歸因於衝突本身固有的限制，迫使雙方處於一種事實上的平局（de facto draw）。分析援引複雜博弈的類比，指出地緣政治「遊戲」的結構限制了所有參與方的決策過程。對於政策制定而言，這意味著衝突正進入一個可預測的終局階段，預示著一段受控的降級（managed de-escalation）期，而非即時的、劇烈的升級。
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