The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Trump’s Least Bad Option in Iran
English Summary
The analysis argues that the United States is in a strategic quagmire regarding Iran, as continued military strikes and maximalist demands have undermined the US's negotiating position. The current standoff is economically unsustainable, evidenced by the depletion of global oil inventories due to the closed Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, the only viable path is for the US to accept significant concessions—on both the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz—to secure a deal and prevent global economic collapse. Failure to compromise risks escalating conflict and leaving the US worse off than before the war.
中文摘要
本分析指出，美國在伊朗問題上陷入了戰略困境，因為持續的軍事打擊和極端要求已經削弱了美國的談判地位。目前的僵局在經濟上是不可持續的，證據是由於霍爾木茲海峽關閉導致全球石油庫存耗盡。因此，唯一可行的出路是美國必須接受重大讓步——無論是在核計畫方面，還是關於霍爾木茲海峽的議題上——才能達成協議，避免全球經濟崩潰。若無法做出妥協，則有升級衝突的風險，最終將使美國比戰前更為不利。
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