The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Japan’s Point of No Return
English Summary
Japan is undergoing an irreversible pivot from its post-WWII pacifist identity to a robust military posture, evidenced by increased defense spending, the acquisition of advanced weaponry (like F-35s), and the loosening of arms export restrictions. This rapid buildup is primarily driven by Chinese coercion and concerns over potential U.S. strategic withdrawal, allowing Japan to strengthen its deterrence capabilities, particularly regarding Taiwan. For policy makers, this signals that the U.S. must shift its alliance strategy from transactional demands to integrating with Japan's growing military strength. Ultimately, Japan's enhanced capabilities significantly raise the cost of conflict for Beijing, making any quick, decisive action against the archipelago much more difficult.
中文摘要
日本正經歷一場不可逆轉的轉型，從戰後和平主義的身份轉向強硬的軍事姿態。證據包括國防預算的增加、採購先進武器（如F-35戰機），以及放寬軍事出口限制。這種快速的軍備擴充主要由中國的威懾壓力，以及對美國戰略撤退潛在擔憂所驅動，使日本能夠強化其嚇阻能力，特別是針對台灣問題。對於政策制定者而言，這表明美國必須將其聯盟戰略從交易性的要求，轉向與日本日益增長的軍事力量進行整合。最終，日本提升的戰力顯著提高了北京的衝突成本，使得任何針對該群島的快速、決定性行動都變得更加困難。
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