The CFR and Belfer Center launched a high-level Task Force asserting that U.S. long-term security hinges on three interconnected pillars: reliable domestic energy access, global leadership in emerging energy technologies, and sustained geopolitical leverage. The project aims to analyze how these factors interact to determine national strength in the modern era. By synthesizing expert insights, the Task Force will generate actionable policy recommendations designed to strengthen America's position within the global energy system. This signals a strategic imperative for policymakers to prioritize integrated initiatives that advance both technological innovation and U.S. leadership in clean energy markets.
The End of Hamas
English Summary
The analysis concludes that Hamas is functionally collapsed—militarily, politically, and economically—despite its continued efforts to project strength. Evidence points to the systematic destruction of its leadership structure by Israel, coupled with a critical loss of external support from key patrons like Iran and Qatar. This profound weakness means Hamas lacks the capacity to govern Gaza or mount a meaningful military challenge. Policymakers must recognize this collapse, shifting strategic focus away from containing armed resistance toward addressing local needs such as economic recovery and civilian safety.
中文摘要
分析結論指出,儘管哈馬斯持續試圖展現實力,但其在軍事、政治和經濟層面已處於功能性崩潰狀態。證據顯示,以色列系統性地摧毀了其領導結構,同時也使其失去了來自伊朗和卡達等關鍵贊助方的外部支持。這種深層次的虛弱意味著哈馬斯缺乏治理加沙或發起有意義軍事挑戰的能力。政策制定者必須認識到這一崩潰,將戰略重點從遏制武裝抵抗轉移至應對經濟復興和平民安全等地方需求。
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1.CFR and Belfer Center Launch New Task Force on Energy Security, Technological Innovation, and American Leadership (CFR)
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This analysis reviews pivotal U.S. foreign policy decisions over 250 years, ranking them by their historical impact on global stability and American leadership. Key successes—such as the Marshall Plan, the creation of NATO, and the establishment of the Bretton Woods system—are attributed to proactive diplomacy and institutional building that stabilized post-war international order. The findings suggest that effective U.S. strategy relies heavily on establishing multilateral frameworks and managing geopolitical risks through careful statecraft. Ultimately, the article implies that historical analysis guides policy by emphasizing the necessity of strategic alliances and economic cooperation to maintain global influence.
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Chinese AI models are rapidly closing the capability gap with U.S. frontier models, demonstrating high performance in coding and agent tasks through open-weight releases. This rapid progress is fueled by techniques like knowledge distillation and the decentralized nature of the open-source community, allowing Chinese labs to achieve competitive models at lower costs than closed US APIs. Strategically, this forces the United States to shift its focus from merely leading in model capability to ensuring global adoption of the 'American AI stack.' To maintain global leadership, U.S. policy must prioritize building trust and reducing pricing barriers, as foreign actors will diversify away from unpredictable or expensive American providers.
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This CFR project analyzes two and a half centuries of U.S. foreign policy decisions, arguing that historical patterns offer crucial lessons for current strategic challenges. The core finding, derived from surveys of leading historians, identifies the Marshall Plan as the consensus best decision due to its stabilizing role in post-WWII Europe and its humanitarian impact. These findings imply that successful long-term U.S. strategy often involves large-scale diplomatic investments aimed at rebuilding key international partners or promoting regional stability. Policymakers should view historical success not just through military action, but through sustained efforts to stabilize global systems.
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Despite critics labeling it a disaster for eliminating wind/solar credits, Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act may offer a clean tech silver lining by preserving incentives for less mature energy sources like advanced nuclear and geothermal power. The analysis argues that while expanding mature technologies has limited global impact, funding the high initial costs of emerging solutions allows them to benefit from a 'learning curve,' making them globally affordable later. These reliable, non-variable sources complement existing renewables and could establish a foundational clean energy capacity for the US. Strategically, this development provides a potential counterweight to China's current dominance in global clean energy supply chains.