The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
One Man’s War
English Summary
The article argues that the U.S. is pursuing escalating military confrontations with Iran, exemplified by recent joint U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed senior Iranian officials. This pattern of action is characterized by a lack of public deliberation, as strikes are launched without presenting the full strategic costs and benefits to the American populace. The key evidence points to a series of unilateral and escalating operations—including strikes in the Caribbean and Venezuela—suggesting a shift toward preemptive military engagement. Policy implications suggest that the U.S. is pursuing a high-risk, low-transparency strategy that significantly increases regional instability and the potential for unintended escalation in the Middle East.
中文摘要
本文論述美國正與伊朗進行升級的軍事對抗，近期美以聯合打擊導致伊朗高層官員陣亡便是例證。此類行動模式的特點是缺乏公開審議，因為這些打擊在未向美國民眾充分呈現其戰略成本與效益的情況下便被實施。關鍵證據指向一系列單邊且不斷升級的行動——包括在加勒比和委內瑞拉的打擊——暗示美國正轉向預防性軍事介入。政策意涵顯示，美國正在推行一種高風險、低透明度的策略，這極大地增加了區域不穩定性，並提高了中東地區發生意外升級的可能性。
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