While the war in Ukraine may reach an inflection point and Russian forces are struggling, the article argues that Russia remains the primary long-term threat to European security regardless of the conflict's outcome. This assessment is based on the fact that despite internal weaknesses—such as a stagnating economy and poor demographics—Russia retains the capability and vested interest in destabilizing Europe’s existing security architecture. Policymakers must therefore prepare for sustained, multi-faceted Russian pressure and potential military reconstitution efforts, rather than focusing solely on immediate battlefield victories or defeats.
Mistaking Order for Anarchy: Territory, Mobility, and Security in the Sahel
English Summary
The article argues that Western academic and interventionist efforts often misdiagnose the Sahel's security challenges by mistakenly equating 'order' with rigid, European-style territorial sovereignty. Historically, the imposition of centralized, territorial governance ignored the reality that local security and order have traditionally relied on non-territorial social structures, such as alliances with pastoral nomadic groups. This flawed premise has led to failed peacekeeping missions and reinforced the misperception that the Sahel is inherently 'ungoverned' and requires external intervention. Policymakers must therefore shift focus away from purely territorial control models and instead support local, non-state mechanisms for consolidating social relations and security.
中文摘要
本文論述西方學術界和干預行動經常誤判薩赫勒地區的安全挑戰，其錯誤地將「秩序」等同於僵化的、歐洲式的領土主權。從歷史上看，強制實施的中央集權領土治理模式，忽略了當地安全與秩序傳統上依賴於非領土社會結構的事實，例如與遊牧牧民群體的聯盟。這種有缺陷的前提導致了和平維護任務的失敗，並加深了「薩赫勒地區本質上是『失治』並需要外部干預」的誤解。因此，政策制定者必須將重點從純粹的領土控制模式轉移開來，轉而支持地方的、非國家層面的機制，以鞏固社會關係和安全。
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