The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Mistaking Order for Anarchy: Territory, Mobility, and Security in the Sahel
English Summary
The article argues that Western academic and interventionist efforts often misdiagnose the Sahel's security challenges by mistakenly equating 'order' with rigid, European-style territorial sovereignty. Historically, the imposition of centralized, territorial governance ignored the reality that local security and order have traditionally relied on non-territorial social structures, such as alliances with pastoral nomadic groups. This flawed premise has led to failed peacekeeping missions and reinforced the misperception that the Sahel is inherently 'ungoverned' and requires external intervention. Policymakers must therefore shift focus away from purely territorial control models and instead support local, non-state mechanisms for consolidating social relations and security.
中文摘要
本文論述西方學術界和干預行動經常誤判薩赫勒地區的安全挑戰，其錯誤地將「秩序」等同於僵化的、歐洲式的領土主權。從歷史上看，強制實施的中央集權領土治理模式，忽略了當地安全與秩序傳統上依賴於非領土社會結構的事實，例如與遊牧牧民群體的聯盟。這種有缺陷的前提導致了和平維護任務的失敗，並加深了「薩赫勒地區本質上是『失治』並需要外部干預」的誤解。因此，政策制定者必須將重點從純粹的領土控制模式轉移開來，轉而支持地方的、非國家層面的機制，以鞏固社會關係和安全。
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