The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Cuba’s Only Choice
English Summary
The article argues that Cuba's severe economic collapse, driven by U.S. sanctions and oil blockades, makes continued political resistance unsustainable. Facing internal divisions and external pressure, Havana's only viable path is a negotiated settlement that avoids humanitarian catastrophe. The U.S. has leveraged secondary sanctions and legal threats, demanding Cuba sever security ties with Russia and China while liberalizing its economy. For stability, the U.S. must structure a sequenced deal: Cuba makes substantial concessions (e.g., opening to private investment and political reforms) in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and allowing foreign capital, thus averting both regime collapse and potential U.S. military intervention.
中文摘要
本文論述，古巴嚴重的經濟崩潰源於美國的制裁和石油封鎖，使得持續的政治抵抗難以為繼。面對內部分裂和外部壓力，哈瓦那唯一的可行出路是達成一項避免人道災難的談判性和解。美國透過利用次級制裁和法律威脅，要求古巴切斷與俄羅斯和中國的安全聯繫，並實現經濟自由化。為確保穩定，美國必須制定一個分階段的協議：古巴需做出重大讓步（例如開放私人投資和進行政治改革），以換取制裁的解除和外資的進入，從而避免政權崩潰和潛在的美國軍事干預。
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