The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Trump’s Houthi Dilemma: Strike or Hold Back?
English Summary
The article analyzes the strategic dilemma facing the U.S. regarding the Houthis: whether to pursue military strikes or adopt a policy of restraint. The core reasoning suggests that while military action offers immediate deterrence, the risk of severe regional escalation—particularly involving Iran or neighboring states—is prohibitively high. Therefore, the policy implication is that a successful strategy must prioritize a calibrated blend of diplomatic pressure and limited, highly targeted engagements. This approach aims to degrade Houthi capabilities and maintain stability without triggering a wider Middle East conflict.
中文摘要
本文分析了美國在處理胡塞組織問題時所面臨的戰略困境：是採取軍事打擊，還是奉行克制政策。核心論點指出，儘管軍事行動能提供即時的威懾力，但其引發嚴重區域升級的風險——特別是涉及伊朗或鄰國——是難以承受的。因此，政策意涵是，成功的策略必須優先結合外交壓力與有限、高度精準的介入。此方法旨在削弱胡塞組織的能力，同時維持區域穩定，避免引發更廣泛的中東衝突。
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