The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
France Fires New Submarine-launched Ballistic Missile in First At-sea Test
English Summary
France successfully conducted the first at-sea firing of the M51.3 Submarine-launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) from the SSBN Le Vigilant, demonstrating the operational readiness of its nuclear deterrent. This test, part of Operation Smertrios, validates the advanced capabilities of France's strategic assets and its commitment to maintaining a powerful military deterrent. Politically, the launch was framed by President Macron as a clear message of renewed national strength and strategic independence. The exercise reinforces France's status as a major global military power and signals its continued investment in maintaining a robust, independent deterrent capability.
中文摘要
法國成功從戰區潛艇（SSBN）「警惕號」（Le Vigilant）執行了M51.3型潛射彈道飛彈（SLBM）的首次臨海發射，展示了其核威懾的作戰準備度。此次測試作為「斯梅特里奧斯行動」（Operation Smertrios）的一部分，驗證了法國戰略資產的先進能力，並彰顯了其維持強大軍事威懾的承諾。從政治層面來看，馬克龍總統將此次發射定調為國家力量和戰略獨立性重獲的明確信號。此項演習鞏固了法國作為主要全球軍事大國的地位，並表明了其持續投入於維持強大、獨立威懾能力。
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