ThinkTankWeekly

Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure

Brookings | 2026-09-30 | economy

Topics: Trade, United States

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English Summary

The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM) quantifies how changes in tax and spending policies affect U.S. GDP growth. The analysis found that in Q2 2026, overall fiscal policy was restrictive, with federal and state/local spending contributing negative drag on growth. While tax cuts provided some stimulus, the forecast projects that the FIM will become increasingly restrictive through 2027 due to continued weakness in government purchases and negative supply-side effects. This indicates that policymakers must address structural spending weaknesses to mitigate persistent fiscal drag on economic activity.

中文摘要

哈欽斯中心財政影響指標(FIM)量化了稅收和支出政策的變動如何影響美國的國內生產總值(GDP)增長。分析發現,在2026年第二季度,整體財政政策偏於緊縮,聯邦和州/地方的支出對增長產生了負向拖累。雖然減稅提供了部分刺激,但預測顯示,由於政府採購持續疲軟和負面的供給面效應,FIM將在2027年持續趨於緊縮。這表明政策制定者必須解決結構性的支出弱點,以減緩對經濟活動持續的財政拖累。

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