The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Blowback: How the Iran war may change the world
English Summary
Following US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, Iran's regime retaliated with missile and drone attacks while blockading the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting 20% of global oil and LNG supplies. The conflict has exposed critical US naval shortfalls, strained American alliances, enabled Chinese strategic expansion, and triggered months of energy market disruption and economic instability. The war exemplifies how US-led Middle Eastern military interventions produce widespread unintended consequences, from maritime chokepoint politicization to rebalancing of great power competition.
中文摘要
在美國與以色列聯合空襲致伊朗最高領袖哈梅內伊身亡後，伊朗政權以飛彈與無人機攻擊進行報復，並封鎖荷莫茲海峽，中斷了全球石油與液化天然氣供應的20%。該衝突暴露了美國海軍的重大缺口、惡化了美國同盟關係、促成了中國戰略擴張，並引發數月的能源市場擾亂與經濟不穩定。此戰爭典範化了美國主導的中東軍事干預如何產生廣泛意外後果，從海運樞紐的政治化到大國競爭的重新平衡。
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