ThinkTankWeekly

A divided southern flank faces Trump 2.0 and NATO 3.0

Brookings | 2026-10-12 | defense

Topics: Europe, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

The Brookings article argues that the primary strategic vulnerability of the southern NATO flank is not a lack of defense spending, but a critical inability to coordinate regional assets due to varied threat perceptions. Southern members perceive the Russian threat as less immediate than their northern counterparts, leading to strategic inertia and internal divisions despite geopolitical pressures. For these nations to survive the challenges of a 'NATO 3.0' and potential U.S. unreliability, they must develop independent strategic thinking. The policy recommendation is that Southern Europe must leverage minilateralism and strengthen subregional groupings (like Med9) to pool capabilities and define a collective, autonomous security strategy.

中文摘要

布魯金斯學會的文章指出,南大西洋盟國(NATO)戰略上的主要弱點,並非防禦開支的不足,而是由於各國對威脅認知不同,導致區域資產缺乏協調能力。南方的成員國認為俄羅斯威脅的迫切性低於北方盟國,這使得在地緣政治壓力下,區域內產生了戰略慣性與內部分歧。為應對「北約3.0」的挑戰以及潛在的美國不可靠性,這些國家必須發展出獨立的戰略思維。該政策建議是,南歐必須利用小多邊主義(minilateralism),並強化次區域群體(例如地中海9國Med9),從而匯集能力,定義一套集體且自主的安全戰略。

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