ThinkTankWeekly

October 2026 update to TIGER: A modest recovery built on shaky foundations

Brookings | 2026-10-11 | economy

Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

The global economy is stabilizing and poised for solid growth, yet this recovery is built on shaky foundations characterized by persistent inflation, rising public debt, and geopolitical volatility. While the US and India are leading growth, much of the world—including the Eurozone and China—faces structural headwinds, relying heavily on AI-driven investment and exports. The primary challenge for policymakers is the shrinking room to maneuver due to fiscal and monetary constraints. Therefore, the report stresses that the only viable path to long-term prosperity and fiscal sustainability is the urgent implementation of deep structural reforms across labor, product, and financial markets.

中文摘要

全球經濟正在趨於穩定,並具備穩健增長潛力;然而,這場復甦建立在不穩固的基礎之上,其特徵是持續的通脹、不斷上升的公共債務,以及地緣政治的波動性。儘管美國和印度是主要的增長引擎,但世界許多地區——包括歐元區和中國——仍面臨結構性逆風,並高度依賴由AI驅動的投資和出口。政策制定者面臨的主要挑戰是,由於財政和貨幣上的限制,其機動空間正在縮小。因此,本報告強調,實現長期繁榮和財政永續的唯一可行途徑,是緊急推動勞動、生產和金融市場的深層結構性改革。

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