ThinkTankWeekly

Do we finally agree on overcapacity? Now what?

Brookings | 2026-10-22 | china_indopacific

Topics: China, Europe, Trade, United States

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English Summary

The Brookings report argues that structural overcapacity, largely fueled by state-supported industrial policies (particularly in China), poses a significant threat to global market competition. While recent international efforts, such as the Milwaukee Framework, signal a move toward coordinated trade defenses across sectors like steel and EVs, the analysis cautions that national tariffs are insufficient, as excess capacity merely redirects trade to other markets. For policy, the report stresses that the goal must be preserving genuine global competition and specialization, rather than merely coordinating protectionist measures. Ultimately, effective action requires building a robust international coalition capable of addressing the root causes of distortion, not just the symptoms.

中文摘要

布魯金斯智庫的報告指出,結構性過剩產能,特別是源於國家支持的產業政策(尤其是在中國),對全球市場競爭構成重大威脅。儘管近期國際努力,例如米爾沃基框架,顯示出在鋼鐵和電動車等各領域推動協調貿易防禦的趨勢,但該分析警告稱,單純的國家關稅是不足夠的,因為過剩產能僅會將貿易轉移至其他市場。就政策建議而言,報告強調,目標必須是維護真正的全球競爭和專業化分工,而非僅僅協調保護主義措施。最終,有效的行動需要建立一個強大的國際聯盟,從根本上解決扭曲的根源,而不僅僅是處理症狀。

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