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The midterm effect: What the 2026 election could mean for public policy

Brookings | 2026-10-22 | tech

Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States

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English Summary

The article argues that the 2026 midterms will limit the prospect of sweeping legislative change due to expected divided government and the looming 2028 election. If Democrats gain control, their primary strategy will be to curb executive overreach through intense oversight and investigations, rather than passing major bills. Key policy battles are expected in health care (reversing Medicaid/ACA cuts) and technology, where Democrats will push for updated antitrust laws to prevent AI firms from dominating markets. Strategically, policymakers should anticipate that pressure on the administration—particularly regarding the Iran war—will come through non-legislative means, such as funding limitations and litigation, rather than comprehensive law reform.

中文摘要

本文認為,由於預期將出現分裂政府和迫在眉睫的 2028 年大選,2026 年的中期選舉將限制大規模立法變革的可能性。若民主黨取得控制權,其主要策略將是透過深入的監督和調查來限制行政權力過度擴張,而非通過制定重大法案。主要的政策戰場預計將集中在醫療保健(逆轉《馬克約尼法案》/《平價醫療法案》的削減)和科技領域,民主黨將推動更新的反壟斷法,以防止人工智慧公司壟斷市場。從戰略角度來看,政策制定者應預期,對政府的壓力——特別是關於伊朗戰爭的議題——將透過資金限制和訴訟等非立法手段來施加,而非全面的法律改革。

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