The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Country platforms for transformational impact at scale: A proposal
English Summary
The article argues that achieving transformational impact at scale—particularly in climate and development—requires moving beyond traditional, short-term, project-based funding models. It proposes that country platforms must evolve from being externally driven coordination mechanisms into nationally owned, institutionally embedded instruments that manage systemic change. For this shift to occur, external funders must fundamentally change their incentives, prioritizing long-term national ownership and shared accountability over rapid, project-specific outputs. The authors recommend a phased, maturity-based approach and diagnostic tools to guide governments and donors in transitioning from transactional coordination to durable, system-level reform.
中文摘要
本文提出，要在氣候和發展領域實現規模化的轉型性影響，必須超越傳統的、短期、專案導向的資金模式。文章建議，國家平台應從外部主導的協調機制，轉變為國家所有制、制度內建的工具，以管理系統性的變革。為促成這一轉變，外部資金提供者必須從根本上改變其激勵機制，將長期國家所有權和共同承擔責任置於快速、專案特定的產出之上。作者建議採用分階段、基於成熟度的途徑，並利用診斷工具，指導政府和捐助方從交易性的協調，過渡到持久的系統層級改革。
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