2026-W44 Think Tank Weekly Digest

Weekly Archive / 2026-W44

2026-W44

2026-10-26 ~ 2026-11-01 | 116 published entries

This digest page is part of ThinkTankWeekly's portal index. It summarizes notable reports and links readers to the original source websites.

1.

Enhancing Leadership Selection: Recommendations for a Multi-Factor, AI-Supported Assessment Tool for the Evaluation and Selection of U.S. Air Force Squadron Command Teams (RAND)

2026-10-29 | defense | Topics: AI, Nuclear, Trade, United States

This RAND report argues that the U.S. Air Force must modernize its command selection process by implementing a multi-factor, AI-supported assessment tool (LAP). The analysis identifies eight core leadership competencies and recommends supplementing traditional evaluations with 360-degree feedback and situational judgment tests. To ensure efficiency, the report proposes leveraging AI/ML and structured military databases to accurately identify assessors and analyze complex, multi-source data. Strategically, this mandates that the USAF integrate advanced data science and AI into its command selection boards to improve operational readiness and mitigate leadership risks.

Read at RAND
2.

An Updated Look at Excess Spending and Affordability in California's Health Care System (RAND)

2026-10-29 | health | Topics: AI, Trade, United States

The RAND analysis estimates that between 18.5% and 23.5% of California's 2025 health care spending is potentially excessive or unnecessary, indicating substantial room for cost reduction. The study updated previous models to account for post-ACA spending slowdowns, confirming that high spending continues to strain both consumers and employers, making affordability a critical concern. The findings underscore that despite recent spending slowdowns, systemic waste from issues like pricing failures and administrative inefficiencies remains significant. Policymakers are advised to implement targeted reforms to curb overall spending growth while maintaining the quality and accessibility of care.

Read at RAND
3.

Anticipating Allies’ Responses to U.S. Retrenchment from Europe: How France, Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom Might Adapt to Alternative U.S. Approaches (RAND)

2026-10-28 | europe | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The report argues that key NATO allies (France, Germany, Poland, and the UK) will likely respond to U.S. retrenchment in a coordinated manner, primarily driven by shared security concerns regarding Russia. While allies view the U.S. as an irreplaceable partner and will attempt to sustain ties during gradual retrenchment, a large-scale or uncoordinated withdrawal will trigger deep mistrust. If the U.S. withdrawal is perceived as leaving capability gaps or suggesting fundamentally diverging interests (e.g., through tariffs or rapprochement with Russia), allies will accelerate efforts to reduce their reliance on U.S. arms, intelligence, and technology. Therefore, the U.S. must manage its withdrawal carefully to prevent allies from pursuing strategic autonomy and decoupling from Washington.

Read at RAND
4.

The Los Angeles Unified School District Community Schools Initiative: An Implementation and Impact Evaluation (RAND)

2026-10-28 | society | Topics: United States

The evaluation of the LAUSD Community Schools Initiative found that while the program significantly enhanced student and family well-being, these perceived positive impacts did not translate into statistically detectable improvements in student academic achievement. Successful implementation was highly dependent on granting schools local autonomy and utilizing coordinators with deep, pre-existing community ties, while competing district policies often served as significant barriers. For policy leaders, the findings recommend streamlining administrative processes and placing greater emphasis on non-academic factors, specifically teacher well-being and dedicated staff efforts to improve student attendance. These insights suggest that scaling community schools requires protecting local decision-making power while addressing systemic bureaucratic constraints.

Read at RAND
5.

Towards an Australian Circular Economy for Solar Photovoltaic Technologies (RAND)

2026-10-27 | energy | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, United States

Australia faces a critical challenge regarding PV waste, with projections showing over 1 million tonnes of end-of-life panels accumulating by 2035. The primary finding is that market forces alone cannot establish a circular economy due to three structural barriers: inefficient, low-tech recycling facilities; lack of collection logistics for reusable panels; and the current high cost of recycling compared to landfill disposal. To prevent the permanent loss of critical materials, the report argues that comprehensive policy and regulatory interventions are urgently needed to build a viable national EoL PV market. Failure to act will default the industry toward linear disposal pathways, undermining Australia's clean energy supply chain resilience.

Read at RAND
6.

Improving HUD-VASH Utilization Under Changing Income Eligibility Requirements (RAND)

2026-10-27 | society | Topics: AI, United States

This RAND analysis examines how recent federal policy changes expanding HUD-VASH eligibility for veterans have impacted housing utilization. While new regulations removed disability benefits from income consideration, the study found that expanded eligibility alone did not significantly increase voucher usage. Key barriers to effective utilization include insufficient VA referrals, high case manager caseloads, and systemic administrative hurdles, compounded by local housing market unaffordability. Policymakers must therefore focus on improving service delivery and addressing these operational and market gaps, rather than relying solely on income eligibility adjustments.

Read at RAND
7.

China's Local Government Debt: Implications for U.S.-China Competition (RAND)

2026-10-26 | economy | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Taiwan, Trade, United States

The report identifies China's local government debt as a critical fiscal challenge, noting that local governments manage 85% of spending while their primary revenue source—land sales—has sharply declined due to the property sector downturn. This has caused local government debt to rise dramatically, reaching an estimated 64% of China's GDP. While this debt problem will slow growth and hamper social spending, it is unlikely to halt China's military buildup. Strategically, the debt challenges will force China to maintain an emphasis on export-driven growth, increasing global trade tensions, requiring the U.S. to intensify technology competition and build international partnerships to constrain Beijing.

Read at RAND
8.

Teaching at the Right Level is a ‘smart buy’ for learning, but we need to rethink how we support teachers (Brookings)

2026-10-30 | society | Topics: Trade

While 'Teaching at the Right Level' (TaRL) is highly effective in theory, scaling it through government systems risks significant performance degradation due to systemic constraints. Evidence from Côte d’Ivoire shows that modest learning gains are undermined by rapid teacher knowledge decay, high and unsustainable training costs, and teacher burnout. For successful national implementation, policy must shift focus from expensive, one-off training to continuous, low-cost support, such as integrating reforms into preservice education and utilizing hybrid digital tools. Crucially, sustained impact requires redesigning the program to reduce, rather than add to, teacher workload, thereby improving fidelity and teacher well-being.

Read at Brookings
9.

Israel’s deadlocked election could force a new vote in 2027 (Brookings)

2026-10-30 | middle_east | Topics: Europe, Middle East, Nuclear, Trade, United States

The 2026 Israeli election resulted in a minority government, significantly complicating the formation of a stable coalition. Key evidence shows the ruling coalition's majority was reduced, while Arab parties substantially increased their Knesset representation, making political alignment difficult. This instability is projected to lead to a new election in early 2027, a period when Israel faces severe international pressure, including potential US aid phaseouts and sanctions. The resulting political vacuum is particularly dangerous given the heightened regional tensions, including potential conflict with Iran and ongoing West Bank disputes.

Read at Brookings
10.

A detailed, affordable plan for transition insurance in the AI era (Brookings)

2026-10-30 | economy | Topics: AI, China, Trade, United States

The article argues that while AI promises massive productivity gains, the resulting job displacement risk necessitates proactive government intervention to prevent severe labor market disruption. Because AI-induced job losses are highly correlated risks, private insurance markets are inadequate, and Universal Basic Income (UBI) is prohibitively expensive and insufficiently targeted. The authors propose a comprehensive 'transition insurance' package—combining wage insurance, retraining assistance, and entry-level hiring subsidies—as a complementary safety net. Implementing these targeted programs would provide necessary economic cushioning for displaced workers, allowing the economy to absorb the shocks of the AI revolution while maintaining social stability.

Read at Brookings
11.

Where do chief AI officers go after federal service? (Brookings)

2026-10-30 | tech | Topics: AI, Cybersecurity

Analysis of former Chief AI Officers (CAIOs) reveals that federal service rarely causes radical career shifts; instead, it reinforces or amplifies an individual's existing domain expertise. The key finding is that the most valuable skill gained is not merely AI knowledge, but the practical, boundary-spanning experience of implementing AI within large, complex, and regulated institutions. For policy, this suggests that agencies should prioritize hiring 'battle-tested' executives with deep domain knowledge (e.g., defense or healthcare) over those with only strong AI credentials. Furthermore, the CAIO role itself may become less distinct over time, with AI responsibilities being absorbed into existing organizational functions like the CIO or Chief Data Officer.

Read at Brookings
12.

Results from 2 years of Active Playful Learning in primary schools (Brookings)

2026-10-29 | society | Topics: AI

The Brookings study evaluates Active Playful Learning (APL), a pedagogical framework designed to make primary education more interactive and joyful. Over two years, the project tested APL implementation across multiple states, comparing the efficacy of self-paced versus coached professional development for K-4 teachers. While the full results are pending, the study's focus suggests APL is a viable method for enhancing both educators' job satisfaction and students' development of critical 21st-century skills. Policymakers should consider integrating structured, play-based learning models into national teacher training curricula to improve educational outcomes.

Read at Brookings
13.

Spending it faster: What a 10,000-agent proof means for AI’s borrowed expertise (Brookings)

2026-10-29 | tech | Topics: AI, United States

The article argues that while generative AI has made scientific result production a scalable industrial process, the true bottleneck is shifting from generating results to human absorption and verification. Evidence from large-scale AI proofs demonstrates that the volume of machine-generated science far outstrips the capacity of human experts to evaluate it, highlighting a critical mismatch. Policy must therefore pivot from merely funding AI compute to strengthening human capital, institutional review processes, and the apprenticeship pipeline necessary to train qualified evaluators, lest the scientific community be overwhelmed by unverified, high-volume output.

Read at Brookings
14.

Parenting in an AI revolution (Brookings)

2026-10-29 | society | Topics: AI, Europe, United States

The article argues that the rapid transition from a play-based to a screen-based childhood, accelerated by smartphones and now amplified by AI, is the primary driver of a global mental health crisis among youth. Key evidence includes the correlation between the advent of social media and declining adolescent mental health, supported by randomized controlled trials showing improvement when teens reduce screen time. Policy implications stress the urgent need for vigorous social, legislative, and judicial guardrails to protect children online, restore opportunities for independent play, and mitigate the developmental risks posed by pervasive digital technology.

Read at Brookings
15.

Don’t Go Backward on China Policy (Foreign Affairs)

2026-10-29 | china_indopacific | Topics: AI, China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The analysis argues that the U.S. must abandon the extremes of aggressive confrontation or total neglect in its China policy, advocating instead for 'steady competence.' Trump's erratic approach has significantly diminished U.S. leverage, causing allies to hedge their bets and increasing China's regional influence. Future policy should avoid overcorrecting with performative toughness, as public opinion favors managed engagement over zero-sum competition. The recommended strategy involves balancing disciplined competition with pragmatic diplomacy, focusing on mutual benefit and rebuilding allied trust rather than attempting to 'win' the strategic rivalry.

Read at Foreign Affairs
16.

How dirty tricks harm, and institutional safeguards protect, the integrity of US elections (Brookings)

2026-10-28 | society | Topics: United States

The Brookings analysis argues that while US elections are vulnerable to persistent 'dirty tricks'—including AI-generated misinformation and voter confusion—the system is protected by multiple robust institutional safeguards. Key defenses include strict 'chain of custody' protocols for ballots, the reliance on air-gapped, paper-based voting machines, and mandatory post-election audits. The findings imply that while fear campaigns and insider threats pose risks, the combination of established legal procedures, technological redundancy, and active bipartisan oversight makes widespread fraud difficult to execute or conceal. Therefore, maintaining public confidence requires continuous vigilance against disinformation and rigorous enforcement of existing electoral laws.

Read at Brookings
17.

Harnessing the wind: A strategy for HBCU campus and community development (Brookings)

2026-10-28 | economy | Topics: United States

The Brookings report argues that Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) are vital engines of economic mobility and regional wealth, yet their development is severely constrained by systemic investment frameworks. Despite generating billions in annual economic impact, HBCUs are structurally undercapitalized compared to peer institutions, primarily due to restrictive 'capital design' and historical disinvestment. The analysis concludes that the core problem is not institutional vision, but the policy and financial mechanisms that treat HBCUs as marginal assets. Therefore, policy reform must shift the perception of HBCUs from charitable causes to undervalued, essential assets, requiring structural interventions in public investment and development finance to unlock campus and community growth.

Read at Brookings
18.

Tools that fit: A guide for measuring family, school, and community engagement (Brookings)

2026-10-28 | society

Despite recognizing the critical role of family, school, and community engagement (FSCE) in student success, education leaders often struggle with how to accurately measure it. The Brookings guide, "Tools that Fit," addresses this gap by providing a structured framework that helps leaders determine their measurement goals, appropriate approaches, and specific tools. It inventories quantitative methods (like surveys) while emphasizing that robust data requires pairing these with qualitative techniques, such as interviews and observations. This resource allows educational teams to systematically select measurement strategies tailored to their unique context, thereby improving the quality and relevance of data used for policy development.

Read at Brookings
19.

In Hardwick, Vermont, art, dinner, and disaster response all share the same table (Brookings)

2026-10-28 | society | Topics: United States

The article argues that strong social capital and local community institutions are critical for the resilience and recovery of small, rural towns following catastrophic natural disasters. In Hardwick, Vermont, the local cultural center, The Civic Standard, stepped in to provide comprehensive aid, demonstrating that deep community connections and informal social networks proved more vital than formal infrastructure during the crisis. Policy implications suggest that federal disaster response strategies must shift to recognize and actively support these grassroots, civic-led organizations, thereby strengthening local social resilience rather than solely focusing on top-down infrastructure fixes.

Read at Brookings
20.

Teacher pay in the US is relatively low and trending downward (Brookings)

2026-10-27 | society | Topics: United States

The Brookings report argues that US teacher pay is significantly low and declining, placing the nation in a poor international ranking compared to other college graduates. Key evidence shows that despite dramatic increases in per-pupil spending over the last few decades, these funds have not been allocated to raise teacher salaries, leading to a widening pay gap. The analysis suggests that the current spending model prioritizes expenditures other than compensation, failing to attract and retain top talent. Policymakers must significantly increase teacher pay to make the profession economically attractive and ensure the supply of high-quality educators.

Read at Brookings
21.

Taxing artificial intelligence: What’s on the table, and what’s at stake (Brookings)

2026-10-27 | economy | Topics: AI, Climate, Middle East, Trade, United States

The Brookings report argues that AI's potential to shift income from workers to capital profits threatens the core of the U.S. tax base, which relies heavily on payroll and income taxes. In response, lawmakers are debating various AI-specific taxes—such as those targeting training compute, data center electricity use, or model usage—each with unique administrative challenges and economic trade-offs. While these proposals aim to maintain federal revenue and fund social safety nets, the analysis cautions that broader reforms, like a VAT or corporate cash-flow tax, could also address the revenue gap. Ultimately, any policy solution must navigate complex tensions between maximizing tax revenue, ensuring efficient capital allocation, and considering national security implications.

Read at Brookings
22.

Is China’s economy broken? (Brookings)

2026-10-27 | economy | Topics: China, Europe, Trade, United States

Experts argue that China's economic slowdown is structural, not merely cyclical, as the nation struggles to transition away from its unsustainable, investment-led growth model. The core challenge is that the state's financial and fiscal tools are impaired, having already facilitated massive credit expansion and accumulating bad debt from the property sector. This forces the government into a difficult dilemma: managing decline by extending credit to failing state-owned enterprises while simultaneously facing weak consumer demand and deflationary pressures. Consequently, the economy is entering a period of mandated, slower growth as Beijing attempts to write down its capital stock and resolve systemic debt issues.

Read at Brookings
23.

Country platforms for transformational impact at scale: A proposal (Brookings)

2026-10-26 | economy | Topics: Climate, Trade

The article argues that achieving transformational impact at scale—particularly in climate and development—requires moving beyond traditional, short-term, project-based funding models. It proposes that country platforms must evolve from being externally driven coordination mechanisms into nationally owned, institutionally embedded instruments that manage systemic change. For this shift to occur, external funders must fundamentally change their incentives, prioritizing long-term national ownership and shared accountability over rapid, project-specific outputs. The authors recommend a phased, maturity-based approach and diagnostic tools to guide governments and donors in transitioning from transactional coordination to durable, system-level reform.

Read at Brookings
24.

Approving the US-Saudi nuclear deal while reducing proliferation risks (Brookings)

2026-10-26 | middle_east | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, United States

The US-Saudi nuclear deal represents a significant departure from traditional non-proliferation policy by potentially allowing uranium enrichment and waiving the requirement for Saudi adherence to the IAEA Additional Protocol. Proponents argue that the agreement's substantial economic and geopolitical benefits, coupled with the US's near-exclusive control over the program, sufficiently mitigate proliferation risks. This control is maintained through a specialized bilateral safeguards agreement (BSA) that limits oversight to declared sites. If enacted, the deal will set a major precedent for global civil nuclear cooperation, profoundly impacting the future of the international non-proliferation regime and the strategic balance in the Middle East.

Read at Brookings
25.

Understanding the beginning of advertising on Chat GPT (Brookings)

2026-10-26 | tech | Topics: AI

The Brookings analysis warns that the emerging age of AI advertising, exemplified by ChatGPT, poses significant risks of discrimination and manipulation due to the conversational and trusting nature of chatbots. Key evidence from a study using 'sock puppets' revealed that accounts from lower-income zip codes were disproportionately likely to receive ads, suggesting economic bias in ad delivery. Policymakers must act preemptively by mandating mandatory transparency and guaranteeing independent researcher access to monitor these closed platforms. This proactive oversight is crucial to prevent the reoccurrence of social media harms and ensure public accountability before AI advertising becomes fully integrated into daily life.

Read at Brookings
26.

Mandates, money, and the end of voluntary hospital cybersecurity (Brookings)

2026-10-26 | health | Topics: Cybersecurity, United States

The article argues that the current reliance on voluntary guidance for hospital cybersecurity is failing, evidenced by a dramatic rise in large-scale breaches. Historical data demonstrates that only mandatory standards coupled with significant financial liability—such as the 2013 HIPAA Omnibus Rule—effectively change organizational behavior, while free tools are insufficient. For policy, the analysis recommends a hybrid approach: Congress must mandate standards written by HHS, enforce annual executive attestations and independent audits, and provide timely funding. This structure is crucial for securing critical infrastructure, particularly vulnerable rural hospitals, by establishing real accountability.

Read at Brookings
27.

Putin’s Strategy Is Working (Foreign Affairs)

2026-10-27 | europe | Topics: China, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that Vladimir Putin's long-term strategy is gaining momentum due to recent U.S. policy shifts, particularly the easing of sanctions and military aid to Ukraine under Trump. This support allows Russia to intensify its military pressure and destabilize Ukrainian society, bolstering Putin's belief that capitulation is imminent. However, the analysis cautions that this success is temporary, citing strong European commitment, rapidly developing Ukrainian defense technology, and the political difficulty for any future U.S. administration to maintain this pro-Russia pivot. Therefore, the window for Russia to achieve favorable negotiating terms is rapidly closing.

Read at Foreign Affairs
28.

The Israel Netanyahu Made (Foreign Affairs)

2026-10-27 | middle_east | Topics: Middle East, Nuclear, United States

Netanyahu's most enduring legacy is the institutionalization of a hardline security consensus that will persist regardless of future leadership. He has successfully eliminated the debate over Palestinian statehood and established a permanent, confrontational posture toward Iran, making these extreme policies mainstream. This shift is evidenced by the normalization of settlement expansion in the West Bank and the widespread acceptance of military action against Iran's leadership. Consequently, future Israeli policy, even if led by opposition figures, will be constrained by this uncompromising baseline, severely limiting diplomatic options and making a return to the two-state solution highly improbable.

Read at Foreign Affairs
29.

How to Secure the Straits (Foreign Affairs)

2026-10-28 | middle_east | Topics: Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Trade, United States

The article argues that the current, fragmented approach to securing vital maritime chokepoints—specifically the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea—is strategically insufficient. Historical evidence shows that separate, overlapping defensive coalitions, even those involving major powers, fail to provide long-term deterrence because they create exploitable political and operational gaps. To counter the persistent asymmetric threats from Iran and its proxies, the international community must abandon piecemeal efforts. Instead, a single, sustained, and unified multinational strategy is required, combining robust American military capabilities with the unified political imprimatur of Asian, European, and Middle Eastern partners.

Read at Foreign Affairs
30.

The Backdoor to American Innovation (Foreign Affairs)

2026-10-28 | defense | Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The expansion of the U.S. defense industrial base and deep military partnerships, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, creates significant vulnerabilities due to complex, global supply chains. The article highlights that even seemingly minor logistical failures, coupled with active espionage, allow rivals like China and Russia to steal critical military technologies and intelligence from allies (e.g., Japan, Australia). Consequently, the U.S. must urgently address this increased exposure by implementing robust security standards, fortifying monitoring programs, and enhancing intelligence sharing among allies. Failure to secure these deepening partnerships risks allowing adversaries to undermine American military advantages and improve their own capabilities.

Read at Foreign Affairs
31.

Only the Gulf Can End the Iran War (Foreign Affairs)

2026-10-29 | middle_east | Topics: China, Middle East, Nuclear, Trade, United States

The article argues that the protracted conflict with Iran is a strategic failure for all parties, making a cease-fire brokered by the Gulf Arab states the only viable exit strategy. The reasoning hinges on the Gulf states' economic dependence on stable energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, providing them the motivation to mediate. This regional intervention would allow Iran and the United States to save face by exchanging economic relief for lifting maritime restrictions, thereby avoiding the painful concessions of a direct bilateral deal. Policymakers should recognize that regional cohesion among Gulf states is paramount, as their collective leadership is the necessary mechanism to de-escalate tensions and stabilize the region.

Read at Foreign Affairs
32.

A Warrior’s View of Why War Fails (Foreign Affairs)

2026-10-29 | middle_east | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

William McRaven argues that American policymakers suffer from a dangerous 'delusion'—an excessive faith in military force's ability to achieve fundamentally political ends, such as regime change. He critiques recent US actions, particularly in Iran, noting that military victory requires occupying and owning ground, a necessity often ignored in favor of strikes. The analysis highlights that US strategy is undermined by constantly shifting objectives and a failure to account for complex geopolitical risks, such as the threat of mining the Strait of Hormuz. Policymakers must therefore temper their reliance on force, establish clear strategic goals, and prioritize diplomacy over military overreach.

Read at Foreign Affairs
33.

Can the Nordic Model Save NATO? (Foreign Affairs)

2026-10-30 | defense | Topics: Europe, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that the Nordic model of deep, regional military cooperation (minilateralism) provides a crucial blueprint for sustaining NATO's collective defense against escalating Russian threats. This success is evidenced by the Nordic states' transition from cost-saving measures to a unified security imperative, establishing integrated command structures and specialized regional roles. Policy-wise, the report urges NATO to replicate this regionalization approach in other frontline areas, such as the Baltic and Black Seas. Establishing these subregional 'deterrence clusters' would enhance local response capabilities, strengthen the alliance's overall posture, and provide a vital hedge against potential paralysis of the main NATO structure.

Read at Foreign Affairs
34.

North Korea’s Enemies Within (Foreign Affairs)

2026-10-30 | diplomacy | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Trade, United States

The regime's elite class is experiencing profound cognitive dissonance and growing disillusionment, threatening the state from within. Despite enjoying immense privilege and access to foreign information, high-ranking officials are constantly reminded of their vulnerability, exemplified by the arbitrary purges and the fate of figures like Jang Song Thaek. While the North Korean state remains highly effective at preventing organized opposition, the pervasive anxiety and deep disaffection among its most powerful leaders weaken the regime's resilience during a major crisis. Policymakers should recognize that the internal strain on the elite, who are aware of the world outside, represents a critical point of instability that external pressure could exploit.

Read at Foreign Affairs
35.

The Demise of Democracy Isn’t Here Yet (CFR)

2026-10-30 | society | Topics: Middle East, United States

The publication argues that the demise of democracy is premature, citing recent global elections as evidence of democratic resilience and high civic engagement. Key evidence includes exceptionally high voter turnout in diverse nations—such as student-led movements defeating long-time leaders in Serbia and successful digital mobilization driving turnout in Brazil. The common thread across these varied outcomes is the powerful role of youth and citizen participation in challenging established political norms. For policy, the implication is that while democratic vitality remains strong, the strategic challenge shifts from merely encouraging participation to ensuring that protest momentum translates into stable, effective, and accountable governance.

Read at CFR
36.

Why Trump’s Tariffs Will Likely Survive the Midterms (CFR)

2026-10-30 | economy | Topics: China, Climate, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

Despite widespread public concern over rising prices, the article argues that Trump's tariff-forward trade policy is likely to persist regardless of the political outcome. This staying power is sustained not by broad consensus, but by national security justifications and strong partisan support for presidential authority. Because Congress lacks the power to easily override a president's tariffs, and because tariffs create vested interests, significant policy shifts are unlikely. Policymakers should therefore focus on reforming existing laws to limit presidential tariff power rather than expecting a rapid reversal of current trade structures.

Read at CFR
37.

A New Collection of CFR Reports Explores the Future of U.S. Strategy in the Western Hemisphere (CFR)

2026-10-30 | economy | Topics: China, Trade, United States

The CFR argues that U.S. strategy in the Western Hemisphere must pivot from focusing narrowly on internal threats (like migration and crime) to embracing a broader, integrated economic and security partnership. The report posits that the U.S. must leverage the region's vast resources—including critical minerals, energy, and technological bases—to counter China’s growing influence and prevent the loss of economic ground. Policy recommendations center on establishing an "Economic Shield" by creating resilient, interconnected supply chains across Greater North America. Success hinges on the U.S. adopting a strategy of competitive attraction, treating regional partners as development and industrial allies rather than mere sources of raw materials.

Read at CFR
38.

What Is the Future of American Strategy in the Western Hemisphere? (CFR)

2026-10-30 | economy | Topics: China, Trade, United States

The publication argues that U.S. strategy in the Western Hemisphere must shift from merely managing regional threats (like migration and crime) to capitalizing on the region’s vast economic and strategic opportunities. Key evidence highlights the hemisphere's immense, underutilized resources, including critical minerals, energy reserves, and agricultural capacity, which are vital for countering U.S. economic and technological decline relative to China. Policymatically, the authors recommend a coherent, geoeconomic approach that leverages private investment and regional partnerships to secure supply chains, advance trade, and consolidate American power base across North America, Latin America, and the Caribbean.

Read at CFR
39.

An Economic Shield of the Americas: How Washington Can Counter China and Build a More Prosperous Hemisphere (CFR)

2026-10-30 | americas | Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, United States

The article argues that the U.S. must implement an 'Economic Shield of the Americas' to counter China's expanding influence and prevent the Western Hemisphere from becoming economically dependent on Beijing. China has successfully filled the vacuum left by the U.S., establishing itself as the region's primary creditor and embedding itself in critical infrastructure, ports, and mineral supply chains. To counter this, Washington should forge an integrated regional economy by offering U.S. resources to like-minded partners who commit to reform. This strategy must focus on four priority sectors—Energy, Supply Chains, Agriculture, and Technology—to transform the region into a self-sustaining economic hub and secure U.S. prosperity and security.

Read at CFR
40.

The Missing Pillar of U.S. Strategy: Forging a New Energy Partnership for the Americas (CFR)

2026-10-30 | americas | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States

The article argues that the U.S.'s future technological leadership, particularly in the AI era, hinges on securing massive, reliable energy and critical mineral supply chains that currently exceed domestic capacity. The U.S. must therefore pivot its regional strategy in the Americas from narrow defensive priorities to a comprehensive energy and supply chain focus. To counter global choke points and compete with Chinese influence, the U.S. should pursue integrated, commercial partnerships across the Western Hemisphere. This approach, centered on bankable deals for cross-border energy and mineral infrastructure, is necessary to generate mutual prosperity and sustain American industrialization and innovation.

Read at CFR
41.

Greater North America: Rethinking the Geography of U.S. Security and Prosperity (CFR)

2026-10-30 | americas | Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

The article argues that the U.S. must fundamentally revise its strategic focus to encompass 'Greater North America,' recognizing that instability and transnational threats in Central America, the Caribbean, and northern South America directly pose domestic vulnerabilities. This shift is necessitated by the interconnected nature of migration routes, criminal networks, and critical infrastructure, which are increasingly challenged by China's growing influence. Policy must therefore adopt an integrated approach, treating trade, security, and development as linked challenges to build regional resilience. By strengthening economic and security partnerships across this expanded region, the U.S. can secure a more reliable foundation for its global power.

Read at CFR
42.

A Path to Partnership With Venezuela: How the United States Can Help Turn a Dictatorship Into a Democracy (CFR)

2026-10-30 | energy | Topics: China, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that the United States must strategically guide Venezuela toward democracy and economic stability, as the country's vast oil reserves are critical to regional security and U.S. interests. To achieve this, the U.S. must employ a comprehensive approach, combining economic incentives (such as investment in energy infrastructure and multilateral lending) with political leverage (sanctions) to prevent a return to kleptocracy. Policy implications suggest that the US must support institutional reforms, professionalize the security sector, and ensure that Venezuela's oil wealth drives broad-based economic recovery, thereby reasserting U.S. leadership in the Western Hemisphere.

Read at CFR
43.

Mines to Markets: A Critical Minerals Strategy for the Western Hemisphere (CFR)

2026-10-30 | economy | Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Taiwan, Trade, United States

The article argues that the U.S.'s overdependence on China for critical minerals—essential for AI, semiconductors, and military technology—poses a severe national security risk, necessitating urgent diversification. The Western Hemisphere is identified as the key resource base, containing vast deposits of lithium, REEs, and other metals. To succeed, the U.S. must adopt a "mines to markets" strategy, treating resource-rich nations as industrial partners rather than mere suppliers. Policy efforts must focus on competitive investments in processing, refining, and downstream manufacturing to build resilient supply chains and offer a compelling alternative to China's influence.

Read at CFR
44.

For Midterm Voters, Foreign Policy Is a Pocketbook Issue (CFR)

2026-10-29 | economy | Topics: Middle East, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The central finding is that for midterm voters, foreign policy is not viewed as an abstract geopolitical issue, but rather as a direct determinant of domestic economic stability. Voters tend to translate complex foreign policy discussions—such as tariffs or conflicts—into tangible concerns about the cost of living, gas prices, and groceries. Consequently, political strategy must frame foreign policy debates by explicitly linking global events to the average American's pocketbook and daily financial struggles. This suggests that policymakers must emphasize the economic consequences of foreign policy decisions to effectively influence the electorate.

Read at CFR
45.

How War, Tariffs, and Other Foreign Policy Issues Could Affect the U.S. Midterms (CFR)

2026-10-29 | economy | Topics: AI, China, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The analysis finds that foreign policy issues—including the Iran conflict, trade tariffs, and AI development—are no longer viewed as abstract geopolitical concerns, but are fundamentally shaping voter perceptions of domestic economic affordability and inflation. Key evidence points to energy supply shocks from the Middle East, rising costs from tariffs, and local concerns over data center buildouts that are driving up electricity prices. Consequently, political strategy must connect global actions directly to local economic pain points, making 'affordability' the central, bipartisan battleground for the upcoming midterms.

Read at CFR
46.

The Quiet Power of International Orders (CFR)

2026-10-29 | economy | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Trade, United States

The article argues that the true power of the international order lies not in grand geopolitical debates, but in its quiet, standardized rules and norms that govern daily commerce. By examining examples like standardized milk measurements and mandatory ingredient disclosure for goods, the analysis demonstrates how global institutions build foundational trust. These granular rules are critical because they enable uninterrupted cross-border trade, ensuring transparency and facilitating the smooth flow of global commerce. Policymakers should recognize that maintaining these standardized norms is key to sustaining global economic stability and consumer confidence.

Read at CFR
47.

Soviet Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Cuba—Cuban Missile Crisis, a Coda (CFR)

2026-10-29 | defense | Topics: Nuclear, Russia, United States

The article argues that the Cuban Missile Crisis demonstrated how close the world came to nuclear war due to the failure of policymakers to account for 'unknown unknowns.' Key evidence reveals that while medium-range missiles were removed, nearly one hundred short-range tactical nuclear weapons remained in Cuba, a fact kept secret for decades. This near-catastrophe underscores that successful de-escalation requires comprehensive intelligence that anticipates all potential escalation points, warning that even seemingly resolved conflicts carry latent risks of miscalculation and nuclear confrontation.

Read at CFR
48.

Israel: The Excellent Election That Settled Nothing (CFR)

2026-10-29 | middle_east | Topics: Middle East, Nuclear, United States

The recent Israeli election resulted in a political deadlock, as neither the incumbent bloc nor the opposition has achieved the majority needed to form a government. The formation of a new coalition is predicted to depend less on the vote count and more on which leaders are willing to break campaign promises, particularly concerning the highly divisive issue of Haredi conscription. This political stalemate solidifies Netanyahu's continued dominance within Israeli politics. For foreign policy, while broad consensus exists on regional issues, Netanyahu's enduring influence suggests a high probability of renewed, aggressive military actions, notably against Iran's nuclear sites.

Read at CFR
49.

Canada Shows the Limits of Trump’s Hardball Trade Tactics (CFR)

2026-10-28 | economy | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

The article argues that Canada is successfully resisting Trump's trade tariffs, demonstrating that economic size does not equate to superior bargaining power. Despite facing significant tariffs on key exports, Canada's resilience is underpinned by its strong fiscal position, industrial adaptability, and strategic efforts to diversify trade partners, particularly toward Asia and the EU. This resistance exposes the limits of U.S. power, especially given the economic dependence of U.S. border states and the global scrutiny of the dispute. Ultimately, the standoff suggests that the U.S. administration will face mounting pressure to back down, learning from Canada's successful defiance.

Read at CFR
50.

What’s Behind the Protests and Riots in France, and What Comes Next (CFR)

2026-10-28 | europe | Topics: AI, Climate, Europe, Trade

Massive protests and subsequent riots in France are fueled by deep systemic dissatisfaction, initially centered on the failing public education system and broader economic concerns like the cost of living. The resulting social unrest has severely eroded the credibility of the current government, creating a highly polarized political environment. Strategically, this chaos is benefiting political extremes: the far-right can capitalize on a 'law and order' narrative, while the far-left gains support from the student movement. This dynamic sets the stage for a highly volatile and polarized presidential election contest in 2027.

Read at CFR
51.

President John F. Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev Make a Deal—Cuban Missile Crisis, Day Thirteen (CFR)

2026-10-28 | diplomacy | Topics: Nuclear, Russia, United States

The Cuban Missile Crisis concluded with the superpowers agreeing to dismantle offensive weapons, successfully de-escalating the threat of nuclear war. While the public resolution involved accepting Soviet missile withdrawals from Cuba, the critical element was the secret agreement for the US to remove Jupiter missiles from Turkey. This historical event demonstrates that achieving strategic stability requires combining public diplomatic gestures with confidential, reciprocal military concessions. The successful resolution established a precedent for structured arms control, leading to broader commitments like the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

Read at CFR
52.

Serbia Election Marks the End of an Era (CFR)

2026-10-28 | europe | Topics: Europe, Russia

The recent Serbian parliamentary election marks a significant political transition, ending Aleksandar Vucic's 14-year rule due to a student-led opposition victory. This shift was fueled by massive civil society mobilization and widespread public frustration over corruption and state capture. Policy implications suggest the new government will prioritize domestic reforms, including anti-corruption measures, media liberalization, and economic restructuring. Strategically, this change is expected to improve Serbia's relationship with the European Union while potentially distancing ties with Russia, opening possibilities for regional normalization with Kosovo.

Read at CFR
53.

Ten Poll Numbers That Explain the 2026 Midterm Elections (CFR)

2026-10-27 | americas | Topics: Middle East, United States

The analysis argues that domestic concerns, particularly economic anxiety and general dissatisfaction with both major parties, are the primary drivers of the 2026 midterm elections, overshadowing international issues. Key evidence includes high percentages of voters citing the cost of living as a top concern, coupled with significant voter disaffection (double haters) and skepticism regarding election integrity. Strategically, the findings suggest that political success will hinge less on foreign policy narratives and more on candidates' ability to address economic distress and unify voters around a shared sense of national direction.

Read at CFR
54.

Understanding Latin America’s Rightward Political Shift (CFR)

2026-10-27 | americas | Topics: China, Middle East, United States

Latin America is undergoing a pronounced rightward political shift, reversing the progressive wave of the early 2020s. This trend is driven less by ideological conversion and more by widespread voter frustration over persistent issues, including high crime rates, economic stagnation, and corruption. While this shift presents opportunities for increased U.S. influence, the stability of the new right-wing governments is questionable. Failure to deliver tangible improvements in security and economic growth could cause the political pendulum to swing back left, maintaining regional volatility and complicating strategic planning.

Read at CFR
55.

“Black Saturday” Threatens a Calamity as President John F. Kennedy Makes Two Offers—Cuban Missile Crisis, Day Twelve (CFR)

2026-10-27 | diplomacy | Topics: Europe, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, United States

The article analyzes 'Black Saturday' during the Cuban Missile Crisis, arguing that preventing nuclear catastrophe requires not only skilled diplomacy but also strategic concessions and individual restraint. Key evidence includes the day's escalating tensions—such as Soviet demands for U.S. missile removal from Turkey, the downing of a U-2 plane, and a nuclear-armed Soviet submarine nearly launching a torpedo. The resolution was achieved through a 'Trollope ploy,' where JFK publicly accepted only the non-controversial terms while secretly agreeing to remove Jupiter missiles from Turkey, demonstrating that flexible, multi-layered negotiation is critical for de-escalation.

Read at CFR
56.

How Americans View Foreign Policy Ahead of the Midterms (CFR)

2026-10-27 | economy | Topics: China, Europe, Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

Americans are increasingly skeptical of foreign policy commitments, viewing global interventions primarily through the lens of domestic economic cost and affordability. Key evidence cited includes the negative impact of tariffs, the strain of immigration shortages, and the high cost of foreign conflicts, leading to a widespread sentiment that the U.S. is 'taxed out and maxed out.' Policymakers must therefore prioritize addressing domestic economic stability and affordability before pursuing major global engagements. While support for alliances remains strong, the focus must shift to demonstrating a clear return on investment for American global leadership, particularly in managing economic rivalry with China.

Read at CFR
57.

John Scali Has Lunch With a Soviet Spy—Cuban Missile Crisis, Day Eleven (CFR)

2026-10-26 | diplomacy | Topics: Nuclear, Russia, Trade, United States

The article analyzes a critical moment during the Cuban Missile Crisis, detailing how a KGB spy's overture provided a crucial diplomatic opening for de-escalation. The key evidence is the proposal—later corroborated by Khrushchev's letter—suggesting the removal of Soviet missiles in exchange for a public US pledge not to invade Cuba. This suggests that even when geopolitical tensions are at their peak, discreet diplomatic signaling and a willingness to negotiate mutually beneficial terms are essential for preventing catastrophic conflict. Policymakers should recognize that successful crisis management often relies on non-public channels and careful, measured diplomatic signaling to guide adversaries toward de-escalation.

Read at CFR
58.

How I Got My Career in Foreign Policy: Rebecca Bill Chavez (CFR)

2026-10-26 | americas | Topics: China, Middle East, Trade, United States

The article outlines a career path in foreign policy, arguing that effective regional understanding requires blending deep academic study with sustained, on-the-ground field experience. Chavez emphasizes that merely reading about a region is insufficient; true insight comes from living there and building relationships with local actors. Strategically, she argues that security stability is not achieved by military force alone, but requires a comprehensive, sustained 'social recovery' approach involving development, education, and robust governance. This suggests that policy efforts in the Americas must adopt a holistic, hemispheric strategy that addresses transnational crime and systemic development gaps.

Read at CFR
59.

Central Bank Currency Swaps Tracker (CFR)

2026-10-26 | economy | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States

The analysis of central bank currency swaps reveals that these agreements are critical mechanisms for managing global liquidity, particularly during periods of financial crisis (e.g., 2007 and 2020). Key evidence shows that the Federal Reserve's swap lines, alongside China's expanding role as a global lender, have been instrumental in preventing severe dollar and foreign currency shortages worldwide. While swaps provide a vital financial safety net for developing economies, they are fundamentally gestures of political trust, making them highly susceptible to geopolitical scrutiny and policy debate. Policymakers must recognize that the actions of the three largest central banks (Fed, ECB, PBoC) not only stabilize the global financial system but also serve as powerful indicators of international economic alignment and trust.

Read at CFR
60.

US Immigrant Share Growing at the Slowest Pace Since the 1960 s (CATO)

2026-10-30 | economy | Topics: China, United States

The immigrant share of the US population is growing at its slowest pace since the 1960s, reaching a near-flat rate in 2025. This slowdown is primarily due to overall population growth decelerating, meaning that even moderate immigration has a greater relative impact on the demographic structure. The analysis warns that without sustained, high levels of immigration, the US faces significant population decline, which threatens the worker-to-retiree ratio and long-term economic stability. Policymakers must recognize that maintaining robust immigration flows is critical to mitigating demographic decline and supporting the necessary workforce across all skill levels.

Read at CATO
61.

Decoy Candidates and the Law (CATO)

2026-10-30 | americas | Topics: United States

This analysis examines the legal permissibility of using 'decoy candidates' in US elections, arguing that current federal law does not prohibit the mere act of recruiting a same-name rival. Instead, legal challenges should focus on ancillary violations, such as false sworn statements or campaign finance law breaches. The author notes that while some states have specific statutes addressing duplicative names, the legal risk remains low unless these specific state laws are violated. Consequently, policy and legal strategy must focus on enforcing existing state election and finance laws rather than attempting to criminalize the tactic itself.

Read at CATO
62.

Senator Wyden’s Data Center Tax Bill Mistakes REITs for an AI Subsidy (CATO)

2026-10-30 | economy | Topics: Trade, United States

The article argues that Senator Wyden's proposed data center tax bill mistakenly treats the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) structure as an unnecessary subsidy. The bill's key mechanism is denying REIT status only to privately owned data centers, effectively reimposing corporate tax rates on these owners while exempting publicly traded REITs. This creates a discriminatory tax regime where the tax burden depends on the owner's listing status, rather than the nature of the business. The policy implication is that Congress should abandon targeted industry penalties and instead pursue structural tax reform toward a neutral system that taxes all business income only once, regardless of the legal form.

Read at CATO
63.

American Farmers Get More “Election Candy,” Courtesy of American Taxpayers (CATO)

2026-10-30 | economy | Topics: Middle East, Trade, United States

The article argues that massive federal subsidies and 'emergency' aid packages are being funneled to American farmers, costing billions of taxpayer dollars, primarily to offset the economic damage caused by poor government policies, such as US tariffs and the Iran war. Key evidence includes recent announcements of multi-billion dollar funds for fuel and fertilizer, which contribute to record-high direct government payments that now constitute a significant portion of total farm income. The implication is that instead of reforming the underlying trade and foreign policy issues that created the crisis, Congress and the administration are simply paying farmers off, incurring immense costs to the US economy and the taxpayer.

Read at CATO
64.

Friday Feature: Kainos Microschool (CATO)

2026-10-30 | society

The article argues that microschools represent a vital alternative to rigid public education, offering highly individualized, inclusive, and project-based learning environments. The success of Kainos Microschool demonstrates that small, flexible groups can effectively cater to diverse student needs through mixed-grade and student-directed curricula. However, these models face significant policy challenges regarding funding stability and regulatory compliance, particularly concerning voucher programs. Policymakers must therefore consider reforms that streamline access to alternative education funding (such as ESAs) to support educational freedom and community-led learning initiatives.

Read at CATO
65.

Hanwha Philly Shipyard to Build Navy Landing Ship Mediums (USNI)

2026-10-30 | defense | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

Hanwha Philly Shipyard has secured a $269 million contract to construct a Landing Ship Medium (LSM) for the Marine Corps, marking a significant step in modernizing US naval logistics. This award, managed by TOTE Services, underscores the LSM's critical strategic role in projecting power and countering China's influence in the Western Pacific through island-hopping operations. The contract highlights the Navy's increasing reliance on international shipbuilding partners, specifically South Korea, and the professionalization of defense acquisition through Vessel Construction Managers (VCMs). This trend signals a strategic shift toward rapidly building a modernized fleet capable of meeting complex, great-power competition demands.

Read at USNI
66.

U.S., Partner Nations to Hold Annual Malabar Naval Exercise Near Japan (USNI)

2026-10-29 | china_indopacific | Topics: Indo-Pacific, United States

The planned Malabar 2026 exercise, involving the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia, underscores the continued commitment of key Indo-Pacific allies to collective security and maintaining a 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific.' The deployment of advanced naval assets and participation in complex drills (including anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare) serve as evidence of deep interoperability and military readiness among these partners. Strategically, this sustained multilateral military cooperation reinforces the regional security architecture, signaling a deepening alliance commitment and projecting a unified response to geopolitical challenges in the region.

Read at USNI
67.

Israel in deadlock: What next for a divided country? (Chatham House)

2026-10-30 | middle_east

The Chatham House analysis argues that Israel's current political deadlock stems from deep ideological divisions, which severely threaten national stability and governance capacity. Key evidence points to the inability of major political blocs to form a cohesive government, leading to policy paralysis and internal friction. Strategically, the report implies that external actors, including regional powers and global allies, must adjust their engagement models, recognizing that internal instability makes long-term policy predictability challenging. Continued fragmentation necessitates a shift toward supporting internal reconciliation mechanisms rather than focusing solely on external security cooperation.

Read at Chatham House
68.

Brussels or Beijing? The EU’s ‘Made in Europe’ plans will force the UK to choose (Chatham House)

2026-10-29 | europe

The Chatham House analysis argues that the EU's aggressive industrial policy, encapsulated by its 'Made in Europe' initiatives, is creating significant geopolitical pressure on the UK. This policy framework forces London to make a critical strategic choice: either deepen its alignment with EU standards and regulatory blocs or pivot toward closer economic and technological ties with Beijing. Failure to define a clear path risks the UK being marginalized by the EU's self-sufficient economic sphere, necessitating an urgent reevaluation of its foreign and trade policy to maintain global relevance.

Read at Chatham House
69.

Africa Aware: 10 years of Cameroon’s Anglophone Crisis (Chatham House)

2026-10-29 | africa

The Chatham House analysis details the protracted nature of Cameroon's Anglophone Crisis, arguing that the conflict is fundamentally rooted in historical linguistic and cultural marginalization rather than simple separatist aims. Key evidence points to the failure of centralized state institutions to integrate the region's unique identity and governance needs. Policy implications stress that long-term stability requires a shift from military solutions toward comprehensive diplomatic frameworks that promote genuine decentralization and political inclusion across the Anglophone regions.

Read at Chatham House
70.

Division between Iraq’s Kurdish parties risks undermining Kurdistan region’s autonomy (Chatham House)

2026-10-28 | middle_east

The Chatham House analysis argues that deep political divisions among Iraq's major Kurdish parties pose a significant threat to the Kurdistan Region's long-term autonomy and stability. These internal fractures weaken the region's collective negotiating power with Baghdad and regional rivals, making it vulnerable to external interference and political instability. For policy makers, the findings suggest that international partners must prioritize mediating political reconciliation among the factions. Strategic efforts are needed to support unified governance and strengthen regional institutions to safeguard the Kurdistan Region's self-determination and stability.

Read at Chatham House
71.

Russia–Africa Summit: Moscow is engaging more with Africa, but its delivery is limited (Chatham House)

2026-10-27 | africa

The Chatham House analysis suggests that while Russia is significantly increasing its diplomatic and military engagement across the African continent, the practical depth and sustainability of this involvement remain limited. Key evidence points to a focus on transactional partnerships—particularly in security cooperation and resource extraction—rather than comprehensive development aid or institutional reform. For policy makers, this implies that Russia's strategy should be viewed as a tool of geopolitical competition rather than a complete alternative model for African development, necessitating careful strategic hedging by Western and regional powers.

Read at Chatham House
72.

After Orbán, Vučić falls: can Serbia’s students herald a new dawn for the Balkans? (Chatham House)

2026-10-27 | europe

The Chatham House article analyzes the potential political vacuum in the Balkans following the decline of powerful nationalist leaders, such as Orbán and Vučić. It argues that the region's future stability hinges on the capacity of civil society, specifically the student population, to drive democratic reform rather than relying on established political structures. The analysis suggests that youth movements and intellectual activism may serve as the primary catalysts for a 'new dawn,' shifting the regional trajectory away from authoritarianism. For policy makers, the implication is that external support should prioritize funding and empowering local civil society and educational institutions to manage the transition and prevent a return to conflict.

Read at Chatham House
73.

Burnham’s first budget should take a global approach to deliver for the UK (Chatham House)

2026-10-26 | diplomacy

The publication argues that the UK's forthcoming budget must adopt a fundamentally global perspective to effectively address modern challenges. It posits that domestic spending alone is insufficient, citing the interconnected nature of issues like climate change, supply chain fragility, and geopolitical instability. Therefore, policy recommendations emphasize redirecting resources toward strengthening international alliances, bolstering global trade partnerships, and investing in multilateral institutions. This shift implies that the UK's strategic spending must prioritize global resilience and diplomatic engagement to secure long-term national interests.

Read at Chatham House
74.

Lula wins Brazil’s presidential election; Trump says vote looks ‘rigged’: Early analysis from Chatham House experts (Chatham House)

2026-10-26 | americas

Chatham House experts analyze the implications of Lula's presidential victory, noting that the election is overshadowed by significant political instability and international skepticism, exemplified by claims of fraud. The analysis likely details the deep polarization within Brazil and the refusal of opposition figures to accept the results, creating a volatile domestic political environment. Strategically, this suggests that Brazil's immediate future will be marked by institutional challenges and potential governance disruptions. Policymakers should anticipate increased regional volatility and monitor how the political dispute impacts key trade relationships and international investment confidence in the Americas.

Read at Chatham House
75.

Collaborators or competitors? Britain and the EU in the age of sovereign AI (Chatham House)

2026-10-29 | europe

The article analyzes the complex relationship between Britain and the EU in the context of developing 'sovereign AI.' It argues that while geopolitical differences create competitive pressures, the necessity of establishing joint standards for AI governance mandates a strategic pivot toward collaboration. Key evidence centers on the divergence between the EU's comprehensive regulatory approach and the UK's more agile, market-driven model. Policymakers must therefore prioritize structured cooperation to prevent technological fragmentation and secure mutual market access in the rapidly evolving AI landscape.

Read at Chatham House
76.

Making peace last: Lessons from Colombia and Northern Ireland (Chatham House)

2026-10-28 | diplomacy

The full text of the Chatham House article is inaccessible due to a website security block. Therefore, a summary of the main arguments, evidence, and policy implications regarding peacebuilding in Colombia and Northern Ireland cannot be provided.

Read at Chatham House
77.

Chasing China: How should the UK and EU respond to China’s competitive threat? (Chatham House)

2026-10-27 | china_indopacific

The publication argues that the UK and EU must adopt a coordinated, comprehensive strategy to counter China's multifaceted competitive threat, which extends beyond military rivalry into economic coercion and technological dominance. Key reasoning emphasizes that siloed national responses are insufficient, necessitating a unified bloc approach to manage dependencies and maintain strategic autonomy. Policy implications require a careful balance of 'de-risking' critical supply chains and technologies while avoiding a full decoupling, thereby safeguarding economic stability and geopolitical influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Read at Chatham House
78.

Evaluation of Texas’s Student Success Acceleration Program 2.0: Implementation, Early Outcomes, and Lessons for Continuous Improvement (RAND)

2026-10-28 | society | Topics: AI, United States

The evaluation confirms that Texas’s Student Success Acceleration Program 2.0 successfully links participation in combined academic and wraparound services to positive, statistically significant early student outcomes, validating the model of holistic support. However, the report identifies critical structural weaknesses, including practical barriers to access (e.g., scheduling conflicts) and profound uncertainty regarding long-term funding and program sustainability. For policy, the findings mandate that future initiatives must embed these services into permanent institutional infrastructure, standardize data collection and outcome measures from the outset, and integrate continuous improvement planning early in the grant cycle to ensure lasting impact.

Read at RAND
79.

New post office policy could lead to the rejection of tens of thousands of mail-in ballots in November (Brookings)

2026-10-31 | society | Topics: United States

The Brookings analysis warns that the USPS's new Regional Transportation Optimization (RTO) policy—which reduces daily pickups in rural post offices—could lead to the rejection of tens of thousands of mail-in ballots in November. Evidence from tested states suggests this change could double the rate of late-arriving ballot rejections, impacting nearly half of all voting-age adults. For policy and strategy, the report strongly recommends that states widely publicize the RTO changes, that voters send ballots significantly earlier to avoid late-arrival issues, and that the USPS clearly communicate which post offices are affected.

Read at Brookings
80.

Israel after the elections: What’s next for US-Israel relations? (Brookings)

2026-10-31 | middle_east | Topics: Middle East, United States

The Brookings analysis highlights that the recent Israeli election and the upcoming US midterms are critical junctures that will significantly impact the trajectory of US-Israel relations. The core finding is that the polarization and shifting American public opinion regarding Israel and Palestine will dictate future US foreign policy priorities. Key evidence for this analysis includes examining how the Israeli election results may influence the current US administration's approach, alongside interpreting US midterm results to gauge domestic political sentiment. Strategically, the findings are expected to reshape the foreign policy platforms of both major US parties, defining the future diplomatic and security framework for the region.

Read at Brookings
81.

Is the AI existential threat real—and can regulatory action prevent it? (Brookings)

2026-10-31 | tech | Topics: AI, China, Cybersecurity, Europe, Nuclear, Trade, United States

The Brookings article argues that AI risks are multifaceted—spanning financial stability, social equity, and technical safety—and require proactive, comprehensive regulation. Key findings emphasize that the financial sector needs immediate regulatory upgrades, while AI's societal impacts must be assessed through meaningful community engagement. Policy recommendations stress that regulation must focus on the *development process* itself, mandating safety disciplines, liability, and oversight within AI companies, rather than merely calling for a slowdown. Furthermore, policymakers must strengthen the social safety net to manage inevitable economic displacement.

Read at Brookings
82.

With vouchers and other school choice policies, read the fine print (Brookings)

2026-10-31 | society | Topics: Trade, United States

The proliferation of school choice policies (vouchers, ESAs) is sweeping the country, but the policy's actual impact is determined by its specific mechanisms, not its label. The analysis warns that the 'fine print'—such as eligibility requirements, admissions criteria, and accountability measures—is far more critical than the policy name itself. While choice policies can improve access, they often function as a 'sorting mechanism,' improving access for one group by reducing it for another. Policymakers must therefore move beyond the debate over labels and instead focus on structural elements like centralized enrollment and information provision to determine if the goal is equity, efficiency, or both.

Read at Brookings
83.

US biosafety policy and regulations: Assessing the landscape (Brookings)

2026-10-31 | health | Topics: United States

The Brookings analysis identifies biosafety regulation as a critical and rapidly evolving policy area, driven by post-COVID concerns, advanced life sciences, and the integration of AI into biological research. The federal government is responding with a multi-pronged approach, implementing various executive orders and legislative proposals to supervise high-risk life sciences research. The central policy challenge is balancing the need for robust biosecurity risk mitigation with the imperative of safeguarding and fostering U.S. innovation in the biotechnology sector. Policymakers must therefore develop comprehensive regulatory frameworks that are both restrictive enough to manage emerging threats and flexible enough to sustain scientific advancement.

Read at Brookings
84.

What comes next: The consequences of the 2026 midterm elections (Brookings)

2026-10-31 | americas | Topics: United States

The Brookings analysis posits that the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections will fundamentally reshape the political landscape and policy trajectory of Washington. The results are expected to reflect the nation's overall mood, the influence of independent voters, and the effects of mid-decade redistricting. Key policy debates will center on issues of public corruption, affordability, and foreign policy. Strategically, the election's consequences are significant, as they will not only determine immediate legislative priorities but also set the foundational stage for the 2028 presidential contest.

Read at Brookings
85.

Strength in Unity: Climate Action for the Pacific Islands (CSIS)

2026-10-29 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, United States

Pacific Island Countries (PICs) successfully leverage multilateral institutions to amplify their collective voice and drive critical climate diplomacy, despite facing existential threats from sea-level rise and natural disasters. However, their efforts are hampered by slow, complex climate finance mechanisms and limited diplomatic resources. The analysis argues that meeting the climate challenge requires broadening support beyond climate aid to include sustained global partnership, as the stability of the Pacific is a critical strategic interest for major external powers. Therefore, global partners must integrate climate action into broader security and development strategies to ensure a resilient and sovereign region.

Read at CSIS
86.

Transshipment Crackdowns Won’t Fix the U.S.-China Trade Imbalance (CSIS)

2026-10-29 | economy | Topics: China, Europe, Trade, United States

The analysis argues that focusing policy efforts on 'transshipment crackdowns' is insufficient to resolve the U.S.-China trade imbalance. Empirical evidence suggests that Chinese value added entering the U.S. market is primarily due to substantial transformation in third-country supply chains, rather than simple, illegal rerouting of goods. Furthermore, the persistent trade imbalance is rooted in fundamental macroeconomic factors—China's export-oriented model and the U.S.'s high demand for inputs (e.g., AI infrastructure)—which tariffs have failed to correct. Therefore, policy must shift from targeting specific fraudulent activities to addressing the structural economic determinants and tariff differentials driving the lopsided trade relationship.

Read at CSIS
87.

What Latin America Can Teach the United States about Drone Defense (CSIS)

2026-10-29 | defense | Topics: Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that nonstate actors in Latin America are rapidly escalating the use of sophisticated, weaponized drones, posing a severe and evolving threat to regional stability and the U.S. homeland. This threat is evidenced by the high frequency of attacks and the increasing technical sophistication of adversaries, who are employing advanced tactics like fiber-optic shielding and 'swarm' operations that outpace current state countermeasures. Strategically, the U.S. must take a leading, hemispheric role by fortifying cooperation among its military bodies. The recommended policy is to pilot a 'lend-lease' program, providing partner nations with counter-UAS technology and training in exchange for valuable operational data, thereby strengthening regional defense capabilities.

Read at CSIS
88.

Fast Following: Military Emulation and Twenty-First-Century Transformation (CSIS)

2026-10-29 | defense | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that 'fast following'—the deliberate practice of observing, copying, improving, and rapidly fielding foreign military innovations—is now a core, critical competency in modern warfare. Evidence from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that military lessons are traveling globally and that adversaries are rapidly adopting and scaling foreign technologies, often outpacing Western military institutions. To counter this, the report advises that Western militaries must overhaul their processes to systematically institutionalize fast following. Key recommendations include establishing rapid acquisition pathways, building intermediaries between users and industry, and learning directly from combat-experienced partners to close the dangerous demonstration-to-adoption gap.

Read at CSIS
89.

FY 2027 Defense Funding: Potential Post-Midterm Outcomes (CSIS)

2026-10-28 | defense | Topics: Middle East, Ukraine, United States

The article concludes that passing stable, full-year defense funding for FY 2027 is highly uncertain due to limited legislative time and deep partisan division. Should Democrats gain control of Congress, they may punt appropriations decisions until the new session to gain negotiating leverage, making the immediate passage of full funding unlikely. Consequently, the Department of Defense should prepare for a significantly scaled-back funding package, likely closer to the $60 billion level proposed in the budget resolution, rather than the administration's ambitious $350 billion reconciliation request. This necessitates strategic planning for a fragmented funding environment that must navigate appropriations, the National Defense Authorization Act, and the debt ceiling simultaneously.

Read at CSIS
90.

Decoding the Right-to-Repair Debate (CSIS)

2026-10-28 | defense | Topics: Trade, United States

The right-to-repair debate in U.S. defense policy centers on who controls the technical data and intellectual property (IP) required to maintain military equipment: the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) or the Department of Defense (DOD). The core finding is that standardizing IP rights, such as adopting Government Purpose Rights (GPR) as the default, could significantly reduce sustainment costs and improve readiness by allowing the DOD to use in-house or third-party repairs. However, this shift threatens OEM revenue and concerns about IP protection are high. Strategically, policymakers must reconcile the need for robust, government-controlled IP access with industry concerns, making the outcome of future defense procurement legislation critical for the industrial base.

Read at CSIS
91.

States Weekly: October 28, 2026 (CSIS)

2026-10-28 | economy | Topics: AI, Climate, Indo-Pacific

The States Weekly highlights a trend of decentralized, state-level policy innovation across India, signaling a rapid push to modernize infrastructure and regulate emerging sectors. Key evidence includes the adoption of comprehensive policies in areas like Electric Vehicles (Meghalaya), Artificial Intelligence (Goa), and renewable energy subsidies (Gujarat). These localized regulatory efforts suggest that development is proceeding through a fragmented, state-driven model. Policymakers must adapt their strategies to manage this diverse regulatory landscape, recognizing that future economic growth and technological adoption will be governed by varied state-specific rules rather than uniform central mandates.

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92.

Business Support for Human Rights Defenders in an Era of Government Retrenchment (CSIS)

2026-10-27 | economy | Topics: Russia, United States

Amid severe global retrenchment of government funding for human rights defenders (HRDs) and civil society, the article argues that the private sector must assume a structural role in supporting this vital space. This necessity is driven by a growing corporate recognition that civic freedoms and rule of law are foundational to stable, long-term business operations. For this support to be effective, businesses must fund through intermediary organizations to ensure the institutional independence of local grantees and mitigate the risk of host-country repercussions. Strategically, private investment can stabilize the civil society ecosystem, thereby creating a more predictable and sustainable operating environment for global commerce.

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93.

The Ant and the Grasshopper—Revised Version (CSIS)

2026-10-27 | economy | Topics: Europe, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

The article argues that the failure of policy initiatives stems not from poor ideas, but from inadequate implementation guidance and undefined goals. Key evidence includes the arbitrary nature of tariffs (e.g., 'Liberation Day tariffs') and the shifting criteria for trade sanctions, which generate massive market uncertainty and suppress investment. For policymakers, the core lesson is the critical need to establish clear, measurable objectives and provide unambiguous instructions to implementers from the outset. Without this clarity, even well-intentioned policies inevitably lead to unpredictable downstream consequences and trade instability.

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94.

Can the United States Lead Through Transactional Foreign Policy? (CFR)

2026-10-29 | diplomacy | Topics: China, Europe, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that the United States' shift toward a transactional foreign policy is dismantling the stable, post-World War II global order. This instability is evident across multiple theaters, including Europe, which is questioning U.S. support, and the Middle East, which faces significant economic spillovers. Global rivalries, such as those concerning AI and Taiwan, further complicate cooperation, suggesting that established alliances are under severe strain. Policymakers must prepare for a complex and 'messy' future order, requiring flexible coalition-building and new diplomatic models rather than relying on traditional great power structures.

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95.

Betting on Democracy (CFR)

2026-10-27 | americas | Topics: Trade, United States

The rapid growth of election prediction markets, which now involve billions in speculative trading, presents a dual challenge: they are highly accurate tools for political forecasting but are vulnerable to fraud and insider trading. While these markets have potential for public good, their current regulatory framework is outdated and insufficient to manage the risks posed by major financial players. To protect the democratic process and maintain market integrity, policymakers—specifically Congress and the CFTC—must urgently update regulations to mandate public disclosure of large positions and implement strict prohibitions on insider trading by political insiders.

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96.

Report: The War on Military Talent (CFR)

2026-10-31 | defense | Topics: AI, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, United States

The report argues that recent Pentagon policies, particularly those implemented by leadership under the second Trump administration, are systematically purging female and minority officers and eroding the military's core principles of meritocracy and professionalism. Key evidence includes the dismissal of qualified minority and female senior officers, the removal of historical exhibits, and the reversal of policies regarding transgender service members. The authors warn that this degradation of talent and morale poses a severe national security risk, undermining U.S. military readiness and degrading the efficacy of coalition operations during a period of intense global competition. Congress must intervene with remedial legislation and oversight to restore the force's integrity.

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97.

Confrontation Over Taiwan (CFR)

2026-10-27 | china_indopacific | Topics: AI, China, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

China's escalating 'grey zone' pressure and military buildup around Taiwan create a severe security dilemma, driven by its stated goal of reunification. The stakes are critically high, as Taiwan's role as the world's leading semiconductor producer means any conflict would cause catastrophic global economic disruption. Consequently, U.S. policy is shifting from strategic ambiguity toward explicit defense commitments, while allies like Japan are increasing defense spending. This escalating confrontation necessitates a robust, coordinated policy response among the U.S. and its partners to manage the heightened military and economic risks in the region.

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98.

War in Ukraine (CFR)

2026-10-27 | defense | Topics: AI, China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The war remains in a technologically advanced stalemate, characterized by intense, asymmetric warfare and deep strikes targeting critical infrastructure. Ukraine continues to press its advantage through advanced drone strikes and attacks on Russian oil and energy assets, while Russia has bolstered its forces with significant military aid from North Korea. Given the failure of diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire, policy must pivot toward sustaining long-range military support and coordinating economic sanctions that target Russia's industrial and energy capacity. Continued focus on counter-strikes and maintaining the integrity of Western support networks are crucial to preventing the conflict from devolving into a purely attritional war.

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99.

Inside Cuba’s Mass Exodus: How Losing a Quarter of the Population Has Changed the Island (CFR)

2026-10-31 | society | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Russia, Trade, United States

Cuba is facing a profound and potentially irreversible demographic crisis due to an unprecedented mass exodus, with estimates suggesting up to a quarter of its population has left since 2020. This outflow, driven by the collapse of the centrally planned economy and political repression, has resulted in a severe 'brain drain,' depleting skilled labor and accelerating the aging of the remaining population. The resulting social fragmentation, coupled with a disproportionate loss of reproductive-age women, threatens the country's long-term stability and economic viability. Policy must recognize that even successful political or economic transitions will be constrained by the reality of managing a significantly smaller, older, and structurally altered society.

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100.

Can the United States Lead Through Transactional Foreign Policy? (CFR)

2026-10-29 | diplomacy | Topics: China, Europe, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Ukraine, United States

The publication argues that the U.S.'s adoption of a transactional foreign policy is dismantling the stable, post-World War II global order, creating widespread geopolitical uncertainty. This instability is evidenced by the lack of clear U.S. commitment in Europe, the intense and unpredictable AI rivalry with China, and the protracted strategic challenges in the Middle East. Consequently, the global system is predicted to transition into a messy, hybrid structure of competing coalitions, moving away from clear great-power alignments. This shift necessitates that policymakers develop novel strategies to navigate a highly fragmented and unpredictable international environment.

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101.

Thirty-First Term Member Conference (CFR)

2026-10-29 | china_indopacific | Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, United States

The conference agenda reveals a consensus that the global order is at a critical inflection point, driven by rapid technological acceleration and geopolitical fragmentation. Key discussions center on managing the strategic competition with China, particularly regarding its financial systems and technological advancements, alongside the urgent need for robust AI governance. Policy implications require a multi-faceted approach, integrating modernized defense production, securing energy supply chains, and adapting diplomatic strategies across the Western Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific. Ultimately, the findings suggest that national strategy must pivot to treating technology deployment and AI governance as core components of foreign policy and national security.

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102.

2026 UN Secretary-General Candidate Series: A Conversation With Rebeca Grynspan (CFR)

2026-10-28 | diplomacy | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Middle East, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

Grynspan argues that the UN must overcome its current risk-averse posture to reassert its legitimacy and relevance in an era of multiplying global conflicts. She proposes strengthening the 'good offices' of the Secretary-General to enable proactive mediation and risk-taking, citing successful models like the Black Sea grain initiative. Furthermore, she advocates for adopting innovative, burden-sharing models for peacekeeping operations and shifting development aid from a supply-driven to a demand-driven framework. These reforms imply that the UN's future effectiveness hinges on greater assertiveness, collaboration with regional and private actors, and tailoring solutions to specific national needs.

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103.

Insights on Geopolitics Around the World (CFR)

2026-10-26 | economy | Topics: Trade

The discussion focuses on the most consequential geopolitical shifts, emphasizing the profound changes occurring in global economic structures. Experts will analyze the shifting dynamics of international trade policy, arguing that the current global order is undergoing significant realignment. Policymakers must therefore prepare for a period of increased economic and geopolitical flux, requiring adaptive strategies to navigate the new international landscape.

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104.

Alan Greenspan’s Legacy as Chair of the Federal Reserve (CFR)

2026-10-26 | economy | Topics: AI, China, Europe, Russia, Trade, United States

The consensus surrounding Alan Greenspan's legacy is that his greatest contribution was modeling intellectual independence and the ability to manage profound economic uncertainty. Panelists highlight his intellectual depth and capacity to guide the U.S. through multiple global crises, noting his willingness to be self-critical and admit policy errors. His career serves as a model for public service, emphasizing that effective economic leadership requires deep analytical skill, humility, and a commitment to the contest of ideas. For policy, the discussion implies that future economic strategies must prioritize intellectual rigor and the ability to reconcile complex global debt issues with fundamental economic value.

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105.

U.S. Strategy in an Era of Rising Conflict (CFR)

2026-10-26 | china_indopacific | Topics: AI, China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The analysis argues that the current global order is not truly multipolar, but rather one where the United States retains a unique, technologically superior position. This finding is supported by the observation that Europe has failed to assume greater global responsibilities, and China's strategy is characterized by a strategic disinterest in developing an alternative global governance model. Consequently, the U.S. remains the primary guarantor of global order, necessitating a strategy that leverages its technological edge while pressuring allies to fulfill their commitments and manage escalating conflict risks.

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106.

The Grim Old Days — The Preindustrial Past Was a Horror Story (CATO)

2026-10-30 | economy | Topics: Europe, Trade

The article argues that modern life represents a profound and recent improvement over the grim realities of the preindustrial past. Key evidence contrasts the current era's advancements—such as antibiotics, sanitation, and increased longevity—with historical conditions marked by high child mortality, endemic disease, and grueling labor. The implication for policy is that sustained economic growth and technological progress are not merely economic metrics, but are fundamental prerequisites for improving public health, human freedom, and overall societal welfare.

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107.

Easing Liquidity Rules Won’t Work If the Fed Keeps Paying Banks to Hold Reserves (CATO)

2026-10-30 | economy | Topics: United States

The article argues that simply easing restrictive liquidity rules, such as the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR), will fail to boost lending because the Federal Reserve's Interest on Reserves (IOR) program creates a powerful incentive for banks to hoard reserves. IOR provides a competitive, risk-free return, removing the opportunity cost of holding cash and thus disincentivizing banks from lending out excess liquidity. For genuine reform, the author contends that policy must be coordinated: regulators must ease rules, the Fed must shrink its balance sheet, and Congress must revoke the Fed's authority to pay interest on reserves. Otherwise, the IOR mechanism will continue to distort the financial sector and suppress credit creation.

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108.

The High Costs of Taxing Wealth (CATO)

2026-10-29 | economy | Topics: United States

The article argues that wealth taxes, using California's Proposition 40 as a case study, are economically counterproductive, failing to raise net revenue while significantly dampening economic activity. Key evidence points to capital flight, where high taxes incentivize wealthy individuals and businesses to leave, thereby eroding the tax base and reducing overall investment. Furthermore, the administrative complexity of valuing non-liquid assets creates massive enforcement burdens and disputes. Policy-wise, the analysis concludes that such taxes send a detrimental signal to entrepreneurs, stifling the productive capital necessary for innovation and technological breakthroughs, and ultimately harming job growth and wages.

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109.

Sealed Case Brief: Courts Must Protect the Right to Criticize ICE Anonymously Online (CATO)

2026-10-29 | society | Topics: United States

The brief argues that courts must rigorously protect the right to anonymous online speech, citing a legal battle where federal subpoenas sought to unmask critics of agencies like ICE and TSA. The authors contend that the government's interest in unmasking an anonymous speaker must be highly compelling and based on a prima facie showing of a crime, rather than merely attempting to chill protected speech. The analysis warns that federal authorities are increasingly utilizing powerful tools, such as grand jury subpoenas, to silence online criticism of the government. This suggests a critical need for judicial intervention to safeguard anonymity as a fundamental component of free expression in the digital age.

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110.

Machado's Return Changes Everything in Venezuela (CATO)

2026-10-28 | americas | Topics: United States

María Corina Machado's return to Venezuela provides the necessary political legitimacy that the current regime lacks, fundamentally altering the country's transition dynamics. Her immense popular support has forced a policy shift in Washington, leading to concrete steps like the establishment of a new electoral council and setting a potential election date. This development exposes the flaws in the US strategy of prioritizing regime stability over democratic transition, as the regime's lack of legitimacy undermines its economic deals. For the US and the hemisphere, the implication is that Washington must increasingly recognize and support Machado's pivotal role to ensure a legitimate, pro-American democratic transition.

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111.

A National Security Rationale for Meddling In the Midterms? (CATO)

2026-10-28 | americas | Topics: China, Cybersecurity, United States

The article analyzes the legal feasibility of an administration using 'national security' as a pretext to interfere with election results, particularly by questioning voting equipment. It argues that while political rhetoric suggests a national security rationale, current federal law does not grant the executive branch the power to recall or mandate changes to voting systems. Furthermore, the analysis notes that there is no evidence that foreign components or alleged tampering have compromised the mechanics of voting or altered actual results. Consequently, the piece concludes that attempts to intervene in elections based on national security claims are legally tenuous and likely to fail, reinforcing the resilience of established election law.

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112.

Ultima ratio regum: "The Last Argument of Kings" (CATO)

2026-10-27 | society | Topics: Indo-Pacific

The article argues that while state power can only change behavior through persuasion or coercion, relying on force is inherently corrupting and destructive to liberal principles. It draws on historical examples—including slavery, the actions of liberal figures during the Civil War, and 20th-century political regimes—to demonstrate that physical mastery inevitably leads to hypocrisy and moral decay. The piece asserts that the ease of coercion undermines the foundational requirement of a free society: open dialogue. Consequently, the stability of a liberal society depends not on the state's capacity for force, but on the preservation of reasoned debate and discussion.

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113.

It’s Time to Get Rid of Debit Fee Price Controls (CATO)

2026-10-27 | economy | Topics: United States

The article argues that price controls on financial services, exemplified by the Durbin Amendment capping debit card interchange fees, are fundamentally detrimental to consumers and market efficiency. The core reasoning is that mandated price caps discourage innovation and investment, forcing merchants to raise prices elsewhere or causing card issuers to reduce services and rewards. Policymakers should recognize that attempting to regulate prices to track idealized 'incremental costs' leads to endless legal disputes and economic distortions. Therefore, the authors conclude that the fee caps must be eliminated entirely to allow market forces to guide pricing and encourage industry investment.

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114.

High Tariffs Are Not Just Bad Economics but Bad Politics, Too (CATO)

2026-10-27 | economy | Topics: China, Middle East, Trade, United States

The article argues that high, sweeping tariffs are proving to be a political liability rather than an economic boon, contradicting the conventional belief that protectionism is electorally successful. Key evidence shows that while tariffs are highly salient to voters, the majority of Americans disapprove of them, primarily blaming them for increased costs of living and inflation. Furthermore, the data suggests that tariffs have failed to deliver on their promise of bringing back manufacturing jobs, and the political backlash is evident in campaign messaging and spending. Policymakers should recognize that relying on tariffs as a signature policy risks significant political backlash and undermines sound trade strategy.

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115.

Even Where They Still Exist, Wealth Taxes Are Costly (CATO)

2026-10-27 | economy | Topics: Europe, United States

The analysis argues that wealth taxes are inherently costly and unstable, even in jurisdictions that currently maintain them. Evidence from countries like Norway, Spain, and Colombia demonstrates that attempts to levy or raise these taxes trigger widespread capital flight, tax avoidance, and evasion by wealthy individuals. The report concludes that wealth taxes generate lower-than-expected revenue and can destabilize local economies. Consequently, the strategic implication is that nations should prioritize overall fiscal discipline and spending reduction, rather than relying on wealth taxes for revenue generation.

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116.

Brazil’s Democracy Is in Trouble—It Has Been for a While (CATO)

2026-10-26 | society

The article argues that Brazil's democracy is fundamentally unstable due to chronic institutional failures and systemic political polarization. Key evidence centers on the selective and biased judicial interference, exemplified by the Supreme Court overriding the specialized Electoral Court during the recent presidential runoff. This pattern of judicial overreach and lack of institutional trust undermines the rule of law, suggesting that external policy and strategic planning must account for high political volatility and judicial instability when engaging with Brazil.

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