The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Serbia Election Marks the End of an Era
English Summary
The recent Serbian parliamentary election marks a significant political transition, ending Aleksandar Vucic's 14-year rule due to a student-led opposition victory. This shift was fueled by massive civil society mobilization and widespread public frustration over corruption and state capture. Policy implications suggest the new government will prioritize domestic reforms, including anti-corruption measures, media liberalization, and economic restructuring. Strategically, this change is expected to improve Serbia's relationship with the European Union while potentially distancing ties with Russia, opening possibilities for regional normalization with Kosovo.
中文摘要
近期塞爾維亞的議會選舉標誌著重大的政治轉型，由於學生主導的反對派勝利，結束了亞歷山大·武奇奇長達十四年的執政。這場轉變的推動力來自大規模的民間社會動員，以及民眾對貪腐和國家控制（state capture）的普遍不滿。政策意涵顯示，新政府將優先推動國內改革，包括反貪腐措施、媒體自由化和經濟重組。從戰略角度來看，此變化預計將改善塞爾維亞與歐盟的關係，同時可能與俄羅斯拉開關係，為與科索沃的區域正常化開啟可能性。
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