The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
What’s Behind the Protests and Riots in France, and What Comes Next
English Summary
Massive protests and subsequent riots in France are fueled by deep systemic dissatisfaction, initially centered on the failing public education system and broader economic concerns like the cost of living. The resulting social unrest has severely eroded the credibility of the current government, creating a highly polarized political environment. Strategically, this chaos is benefiting political extremes: the far-right can capitalize on a 'law and order' narrative, while the far-left gains support from the student movement. This dynamic sets the stage for a highly volatile and polarized presidential election contest in 2027.
中文摘要
法國大規模的抗議活動和隨後的暴動，源於深刻的體制性不滿，最初集中在失能的公立教育體系，以及生活成本等更廣泛的經濟問題。由此產生的社會動盪嚴重侵蝕了現行政府的公信力，營造出一個高度兩極化的政治環境。從戰略角度來看，這場混亂正在使政治極端勢力受益：極右翼可以利用「法律與秩序」的敘事，而極左翼則從學生運動中獲得支持。這種動態為2027年極具波動性且兩極化的總統選舉奠定了基礎。
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