The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
The Grim Old Days — The Preindustrial Past Was a Horror Story
English Summary
The article argues that modern life represents a profound and recent improvement over the grim realities of the preindustrial past. Key evidence contrasts the current era's advancements—such as antibiotics, sanitation, and increased longevity—with historical conditions marked by high child mortality, endemic disease, and grueling labor. The implication for policy is that sustained economic growth and technological progress are not merely economic metrics, but are fundamental prerequisites for improving public health, human freedom, and overall societal welfare.
中文摘要
本文論述，現代生活相較於前工業時代的嚴峻現實，代表了一場深刻且近期的改善。其關鍵證據對比了當代進步的成就——例如抗生素、衛生設施和壽命延長——與歷史上高嬰兒死亡率、地方性疾病和艱苦勞動的條件。政策上的啟示是，持續的經濟增長和技術進步，不僅僅是經濟指標，更是改善公共衛生、人類自由和整體社會福祉的根本前提。
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