ThinkTankWeekly

Why Trump’s Tariffs Will Likely Survive the Midterms

CFR | 2026-10-30 | economy

Topics: China, Climate, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

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English Summary

Despite widespread public concern over rising prices, the article argues that Trump's tariff-forward trade policy is likely to persist regardless of the political outcome. This staying power is sustained not by broad consensus, but by national security justifications and strong partisan support for presidential authority. Because Congress lacks the power to easily override a president's tariffs, and because tariffs create vested interests, significant policy shifts are unlikely. Policymakers should therefore focus on reforming existing laws to limit presidential tariff power rather than expecting a rapid reversal of current trade structures.

中文摘要

儘管公眾普遍對物價上漲感到擔憂,本文主張川普(Trump)的關稅為導的貿易政策,無論政治結果如何,都極有可能持續存在。這種持續性並非源於廣泛的共識,而是建立在國家安全理由和強烈的黨派支持總統權威之上。由於國會缺乏輕易推翻總統關稅的權力,且關稅的制定會產生既得利益,因此重大的政策轉變難以實現。因此,政策制定者應著重於修訂現有法律以限制總統的關稅權力,而非期待當前貿易結構的迅速逆轉。

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