ThinkTankWeekly

A Warrior’s View of Why War Fails

Foreign Affairs | 2026-10-29 | middle_east

Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

William McRaven argues that American policymakers suffer from a dangerous 'delusion'—an excessive faith in military force's ability to achieve fundamentally political ends, such as regime change. He critiques recent US actions, particularly in Iran, noting that military victory requires occupying and owning ground, a necessity often ignored in favor of strikes. The analysis highlights that US strategy is undermined by constantly shifting objectives and a failure to account for complex geopolitical risks, such as the threat of mining the Strait of Hormuz. Policymakers must therefore temper their reliance on force, establish clear strategic goals, and prioritize diplomacy over military overreach.

中文摘要

威廉·麥克雷文(William McRaven)指出,美國政策制定者患有一種危險的「錯覺」——即過度相信軍事武力能夠達成根本性的政治目的,例如政權更迭。他批評了美國近期的行動,特別是在伊朗的行動,指出軍事勝利需要佔領和掌握實地,而這種必要性往往被犧牲了,轉而選擇空襲。該分析強調,美國的戰略受到不斷變動的目標和未能充分考慮複雜地緣政治風險的困擾,例如霍爾木茲海峽可能被設雷的威脅。因此,政策制定者必須克制對武力的依賴,確立明確的戰略目標,並將外交置於軍事過度介入之上。

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