ThinkTankWeekly

Can the United States Lead Through Transactional Foreign Policy?

CFR | 2026-10-29 | diplomacy

Topics: China, Europe, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Ukraine, United States

Visit original source

ThinkTankWeekly provides a curated entry and summary only. Full text and PDF remain on the publisher's website.

English Summary

The publication argues that the U.S.'s adoption of a transactional foreign policy is dismantling the stable, post-World War II global order, creating widespread geopolitical uncertainty. This instability is evidenced by the lack of clear U.S. commitment in Europe, the intense and unpredictable AI rivalry with China, and the protracted strategic challenges in the Middle East. Consequently, the global system is predicted to transition into a messy, hybrid structure of competing coalitions, moving away from clear great-power alignments. This shift necessitates that policymakers develop novel strategies to navigate a highly fragmented and unpredictable international environment.

中文摘要

該出版物論點指出,美國採取交易型外交政策正在瓦解穩定、戰後二戰的全球秩序,從而造成廣泛的地緣政治不確定性。這種不穩定性體現在美國在歐洲缺乏明確的承諾、與中國之間激烈且不可預測的AI競爭,以及中東地區持續的戰略挑戰。因此,全球體系預計將轉型為一種混亂的、由競爭性聯盟組成的混合結構,遠離清晰的大國陣營劃分。這一轉變要求政策制定者必須制定新穎的策略,以應對高度碎片化且不可預測的國際環境。

Related Entries

  1. 1.
    2026-11-07 | defense | 2026-W45 | Topics: Indo-Pacific, Middle East, United States

    The article argues that recent executive overreach and politicization have severely undermined established norms of U.S. civil-military relations. To restore professional standards, the incoming Congress must actively exercise its oversight powers, moving beyond mere criticism to demanding transparency in defense policy and personnel decisions. Key reforms include enforcing meritocratic promotion processes, requiring documented justification for senior officer removals, and preventing the partisan use of the military. These actions are crucial for bolstering public trust and ensuring the military remains a nonpartisan instrument of civilian control.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

  2. 2.
    2026-11-07 | middle_east | 2026-W45 | Topics: China, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

    The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

  3. 3.
    2026-11-07 | economy | 2026-W45 | Topics: China, Europe, Trade

    China's economic strategy is characterized by a persistent 'economics of denial,' prioritizing massive state-directed investment in advanced technology over addressing weak domestic consumption. This approach is rooted in a flawed belief that controlling physical capital will automatically generate productivity and wage growth, ignoring the structural imbalance where domestic demand consistently falls short of supply. This overinvestment and underconsumption model is unsustainable. Consequently, Beijing's policies will continue to generate global deflationary pressures and escalating trade friction, necessitating a fundamental pivot toward consumption-led growth for long-term stability.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

  4. 4.
    2026-11-07 | economy | 2026-W45 | Topics: AI, China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Trade, Ukraine, United States

    The Blue Wave signals significant voter frustration with cost of living and inflation, giving Congress a mandate to prioritize affordability and cost-reduction measures. Economically, the rapid build-out of AI data centers is creating localized stress, driving up skilled labor wages and straining resources, while also facing constraints from power grids and potential local regulatory backlash. Policymakers must manage this 'sequencing issue'—addressing rising costs before full productivity gains from AI can materialize—and anticipate shifts in global data center infrastructure as the market matures.

    Read at CFR

  5. 5.
    2026-11-07 | economy | 2026-W45 | Topics: United States

    The built environment workforce, comprising 15.3 million workers across 95 occupations, is foundational to modern infrastructure and economic stability. While highly paid, the workforce suffers from significant demographic imbalances, being disproportionately white and male, and often lacking clear career progression pathways. To prevent project delays and cost overruns, policy must mandate that capital asset owners treat labor market forecasting as core to project planning. Strategic interventions are required to strengthen career pipelines through robust apprenticeships, improve retention, and actively recruit younger and more diverse workers.

    Read at Brookings