ThinkTankWeekly

China's Local Government Debt: Implications for U.S.-China Competition

RAND | 2026-10-26 | economy

Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Nuclear, Taiwan, Trade, United States

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English Summary

The report identifies China's local government debt as a critical fiscal challenge, noting that local governments manage 85% of spending while their primary revenue source—land sales—has sharply declined due to the property sector downturn. This has caused local government debt to rise dramatically, reaching an estimated 64% of China's GDP. While this debt problem will slow growth and hamper social spending, it is unlikely to halt China's military buildup. Strategically, the debt challenges will force China to maintain an emphasis on export-driven growth, increasing global trade tensions, requiring the U.S. to intensify technology competition and build international partnerships to constrain Beijing.

中文摘要

該報告指出,中國的地方政府債務構成了一項關鍵的財政挑戰。報告提到,地方政府負責管理85%的支出,但其主要收入來源——土地出讓金——因房地產行業衰退而急劇下降。這導致地方政府債務大幅上升,估計已達到中國GDP的64%。雖然債務問題將減緩經濟增長並阻礙社會支出,但它不太可能阻止中國的軍事擴張。從戰略角度來看,這些債務挑戰將迫使中國繼續強調出口驅動型增長,從而加劇全球貿易緊張局勢,要求美國加劇技術競爭並建立國際夥伴關係,以制衡北京。

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