ThinkTankWeekly

Don’t Go Backward on China Policy

Foreign Affairs | 2026-10-29 | china_indopacific

Topics: AI, China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Nuclear, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

The analysis argues that the U.S. must abandon the extremes of aggressive confrontation or total neglect in its China policy, advocating instead for 'steady competence.' Trump's erratic approach has significantly diminished U.S. leverage, causing allies to hedge their bets and increasing China's regional influence. Future policy should avoid overcorrecting with performative toughness, as public opinion favors managed engagement over zero-sum competition. The recommended strategy involves balancing disciplined competition with pragmatic diplomacy, focusing on mutual benefit and rebuilding allied trust rather than attempting to 'win' the strategic rivalry.

中文摘要

本分析認為,美國在對華政策上必須擺脫採取極端對抗或完全忽視的兩極化策略,轉而倡導「穩健能力」(steady competence)。川普的行為缺乏穩定性,已大幅削弱了美國的戰略籌碼,導致盟國採取觀望態度,並增加了中國在區域的影響力。未來政策應避免過度修正,避免採取表演性的強硬姿態,因為公眾輿論更傾向於「可管理的參與」(managed engagement),而非零和競爭。建議的策略是平衡紀律性的競爭與務實的外交,應著重於實現互惠互利和重建盟友信任,而非試圖在戰略競爭中「取勝」。

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