ThinkTankWeekly

Crime and security take center stage in Brazil’s election

Brookings | 2026-09-30 | americas

Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, United States

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English Summary

Security concerns are emerging as the dominant issue in Brazil's 2026 election, forcing candidates to pivot away from traditional economic debates. The challenge of crime is complex, stemming not only from organized groups (like the PCC) but also from institutional corruption and the lack of sustained federal presence in key biomes. While external powers, particularly the U.S., may view Brazil as a strategic opportunity for deep security cooperation, the article suggests that internal political dynamics and the difficulty of tackling systemic corruption will limit the scope of foreign influence regardless of the election outcome. Therefore, any policy strategy must account for Brazil's deeply decentralized law enforcement system and the powerful role of local political elites.

中文摘要

安全顧慮已成為巴西2026年大選的主導議題,迫使候選人轉離傳統的經濟辯論。犯罪挑戰的複雜性不僅源於有組織犯罪集團(如PCC),更來自制度性腐敗以及聯邦政府在關鍵生物群系缺乏持續的足跡。儘管外部強權,特別是美國,可能將巴西視為進行深度安全合作的戰略機會,但本文指出,無論選舉結果如何,內部政治動態和解決系統性腐敗的難度,將會限制外部影響力的範圍。因此,任何政策策略都必須考量巴西高度分權的執法系統,以及當地政治菁英所具備的強大影響力。

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