The article argues that recent executive overreach and politicization have severely undermined established norms of U.S. civil-military relations. To restore professional standards, the incoming Congress must actively exercise its oversight powers, moving beyond mere criticism to demanding transparency in defense policy and personnel decisions. Key reforms include enforcing meritocratic promotion processes, requiring documented justification for senior officer removals, and preventing the partisan use of the military. These actions are crucial for bolstering public trust and ensuring the military remains a nonpartisan instrument of civilian control.
What kind of Brazil will emerge from this election?
English Summary
The 2026 Brazilian election is analyzed as a pivotal moment determining whether Brazil will maintain its current 'multi-alignment' strategy or pivot toward a selective, U.S.-centric foreign policy. A victory for the right-wing Bolsonaro family would consolidate U.S. regional influence, shifting Brazil from multilateral coalition-building toward transactional, bilateral diplomacy focused on American interests and critical minerals. While deep economic ties with China constrain a full decoupling from Beijing, this strategic shift would significantly diminish Brazil's role as a key multilateral collaborator in the Global South. For international partners, this implies a potential loss of a major voice in efforts to resist great-power division and promote inclusive global governance.
中文摘要
本文分析2026年巴西大選,認為這是一個關鍵轉捩點,將決定巴西是維持現有的「多邊對齊」戰略,還是轉向以美國為中心的選擇性外交政策。如果右翼的博索納羅家族當選,將鞏固美國在區域的影響力,使巴西從多邊聯盟構建轉向以美國利益和關鍵礦物為重點的交易性雙邊外交。儘管與中國的深厚經濟聯繫限制了其完全脫鉤,但這一戰略轉變仍將顯著削弱巴西作為全球南方關鍵多邊合作者的角色。對於國際夥伴而言,這意味著在抵抗大國分裂和推動包容性全球治理的努力中,可能會失去一個重要的發聲平台。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
-
3.
China's economic strategy is characterized by a persistent 'economics of denial,' prioritizing massive state-directed investment in advanced technology over addressing weak domestic consumption. This approach is rooted in a flawed belief that controlling physical capital will automatically generate productivity and wage growth, ignoring the structural imbalance where domestic demand consistently falls short of supply. This overinvestment and underconsumption model is unsustainable. Consequently, Beijing's policies will continue to generate global deflationary pressures and escalating trade friction, necessitating a fundamental pivot toward consumption-led growth for long-term stability.
-
4.
The publication argues that current efforts to improve the well-being of men and boys of color are too fragmented, failing to account for the structural linkages between systems like education, employment, and criminal justice. It proposes a new, holistic framework that traces how structural conditions flow through multiple domains to measurable outcomes, such as longevity. Key reasoning emphasizes the need to treat 'place' as a fundamental actor and to identify successful communities where these populations are already thriving. Policy implications require shifting away from individual-focused interventions toward developing structural, place-based agendas that address systemic inequities.
-
5.
The Blue Wave signals significant voter frustration with cost of living and inflation, giving Congress a mandate to prioritize affordability and cost-reduction measures. Economically, the rapid build-out of AI data centers is creating localized stress, driving up skilled labor wages and straining resources, while also facing constraints from power grids and potential local regulatory backlash. Policymakers must manage this 'sequencing issue'—addressing rising costs before full productivity gains from AI can materialize—and anticipate shifts in global data center infrastructure as the market matures.