The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Do National Guard Deployments Reduce Crime? Evidence from DC
English Summary
While visible National Guard deployments may temporarily reduce certain opportunistic street crimes, the analysis concludes that these benefits are costly and inefficient. Key evidence suggests that observed crime reductions may stem from reduced local economic and social activity rather than pure deterrence. Furthermore, a cost-benefit analysis revealed a poor return on investment, with estimated deployment costs significantly outweighing social benefits. Policymakers should therefore prioritize sustained, community-based public safety strategies over expensive, short-term military deployments.
中文摘要
儘管可見的國民警衛隊部署可能暫時減少某些機會型街頭犯罪，但分析結論指出，這些益處是高成本且效率低下的。關鍵證據顯示，觀察到的犯罪減少可能源於當地經濟和社會活動的萎縮，而非純粹的威懾作用。此外，成本效益分析揭示了投資回報率低下，估計的部署成本顯著超過了社會效益。因此，政策制定者應優先推行持續的、社區基礎的公共安全策略，而非昂貴的短期軍事部署。
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