The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
The Day Argentina Decided to Decline
English Summary
The article argues that Argentina's long-term economic decline stems from a historical shift, initiated by Peronism, from a liberal, export-focused economy to an extreme corporatist-protectionist model. This system, characterized by high state intervention, tariffs, and public spending, detached the economy from global trade and stifled private growth. While recent administrations have begun deregulating and reopening the economy, the structural legacy of state-planned industrialization and resistance from entrenched interest groups significantly impede full recovery. This history serves as a cautionary tale regarding the dangers of prioritizing political patronage over market fundamentals.
中文摘要
本文論述阿根廷長期的經濟衰退源於歷史性的轉變，此轉變始於佩龍主義（Peronism），將經濟體系從自由的、出口導向的模式，轉變為極端的企業工會保護主義模式。這種系統的特徵是高度的國家干預、關稅壁壘和公共支出，導致經濟脫離了全球貿易體系，並抑制了私人部門的增長。儘管近期的政府已經開始進行去管制化和經濟開放，但國家規劃的工業化結構性遺產，以及既得利益集團的阻力，仍嚴重阻礙了經濟的全面復甦。這段歷史為我們提供了一個警示，提醒人們警惕將政治庇護凌駕於市場基本面之上的危險。
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