The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Iran Regime Attempts Creative Negotiating Stance
English Summary
CFR argues that Tehran is pursuing a tactical, tightly constrained negotiating posture: it wants sanctions relief while preserving core red lines, and is offering only limited nuclear flexibility. Evidence includes Iran’s insistence on Oman as venue and a nuclear-only agenda, plus signals it could cap low-level enrichment and dilute some highly enriched uranium under IAEA verification, while Washington still demands zero enrichment. The article also notes the coercive backdrop: expanded U.S. military presence, Israeli warnings that talks could buy Iran time, and the regime’s violent domestic consolidation after mass protest crackdowns. Policy-wise, this suggests the United States and partners should pair diplomacy with credible deterrence, structure any relief around verifiable compliance, and account for residual proxy risks (especially the Houthis) despite broader degradation of Iran’s network.
中文摘要
CFR認為，德黑蘭正採取一種戰術性且高度受限的談判姿態：伊朗希望獲得制裁鬆綁，同時維持其核心紅線，且僅願提供有限的核議題彈性。其證據包括，伊朗堅持以阿曼為會談地點並將議程限於核問題；此外，伊朗也釋出訊號，表示可能在國際原子能總署（IAEA）核查下，對低濃度鈾濃縮設定上限，並稀釋部分高濃縮鈾，但華府仍要求零濃縮。文章亦指出談判所處的脅迫背景：美國擴大軍事部署、以色列警告談判可能為伊朗爭取時間，以及該政權在大規模抗議鎮壓後以暴力手段鞏固國內控制。就政策意涵而言，這顯示美國及其夥伴應在外交之外維持可信威懾，將任何制裁鬆綁與可驗證的合規表現掛鉤，並在伊朗代理網絡整體受損之際，仍納入殘存代理人風險（尤其是胡塞武裝）的考量。
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