The article argues that recent executive overreach and politicization have severely undermined established norms of U.S. civil-military relations. To restore professional standards, the incoming Congress must actively exercise its oversight powers, moving beyond mere criticism to demanding transparency in defense policy and personnel decisions. Key reforms include enforcing meritocratic promotion processes, requiring documented justification for senior officer removals, and preventing the partisan use of the military. These actions are crucial for bolstering public trust and ensuring the military remains a nonpartisan instrument of civilian control.
The Rising Threat of Great Power War and the Lessons of 1914
English Summary
The article argues that global great power competition has returned with a vengeance, displaying troubling similarities to the unstable multipolarity preceding World War I. Evidence points to the rise of autocracies, escalating tensions (e.g., Russia/Ukraine, China's buildup), and a global retreat from democratic norms. Drawing on historical lessons, the key strategic implication is that leaders must actively prevent small, localized conflicts from metastasizing into larger crises. This requires proactive diplomacy to manage escalating tensions, a necessity amplified by the speed of modern information and AI.
中文摘要
本文論述全球大國競爭已再度興起，其現象令人憂慮，與一戰前不穩定的多極格局存在相似之處。證據顯示，威權政體正在崛起，地緣緊張局勢不斷升級（例如俄烏衝突、中國的軍事部署），且全球正逐漸偏離民主規範。從歷史教訓出發，核心戰略啟示是：領導人必須主動阻止小型、局部的衝突擴大為更大規模的危機。這要求進行積極的外交斡旋以管理升級的緊張局勢，而現代資訊和人工智慧的傳播速度，更使此一必要性顯著提升。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
-
3.
China's economic strategy is characterized by a persistent 'economics of denial,' prioritizing massive state-directed investment in advanced technology over addressing weak domestic consumption. This approach is rooted in a flawed belief that controlling physical capital will automatically generate productivity and wage growth, ignoring the structural imbalance where domestic demand consistently falls short of supply. This overinvestment and underconsumption model is unsustainable. Consequently, Beijing's policies will continue to generate global deflationary pressures and escalating trade friction, necessitating a fundamental pivot toward consumption-led growth for long-term stability.
-
4.
The Blue Wave signals significant voter frustration with cost of living and inflation, giving Congress a mandate to prioritize affordability and cost-reduction measures. Economically, the rapid build-out of AI data centers is creating localized stress, driving up skilled labor wages and straining resources, while also facing constraints from power grids and potential local regulatory backlash. Policymakers must manage this 'sequencing issue'—addressing rising costs before full productivity gains from AI can materialize—and anticipate shifts in global data center infrastructure as the market matures.
-
5.
The built environment workforce, comprising 15.3 million workers across 95 occupations, is foundational to modern infrastructure and economic stability. While highly paid, the workforce suffers from significant demographic imbalances, being disproportionately white and male, and often lacking clear career progression pathways. To prevent project delays and cost overruns, policy must mandate that capital asset owners treat labor market forecasting as core to project planning. Strategic interventions are required to strengthen career pipelines through robust apprenticeships, improve retention, and actively recruit younger and more diverse workers.