ThinkTankWeekly

At October 7 Anniversary, Israelis Face an Election and an Unfinished Reckoning

CFR | 2026-10-07 | middle_east

Topics: Europe, Middle East, Nuclear, United States

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English Summary

Israel faces a critical juncture marked by an upcoming election and the unresolved political fallout from the October 7 attacks, despite achieving significant military successes against regional threats like Hamas and Hezbollah. The analysis argues that while Israel's security doctrine has hardened toward mechanical deterrence and proactive strikes, its military capabilities and survival are fundamentally dependent on continued international cooperation, particularly from the U.S. and Arab states. Policy implications suggest that internal political instability and growing international criticism will persist regardless of who wins the election, necessitating that any future government prioritize addressing critical internal issues, such as the size and participation of the military, to maintain stability.

中文摘要

以色列正處於一個關鍵的十字路口,這受到即將到來的選舉和十月七日攻擊事件未解決的政治後果的影響,儘管其對抗哈馬斯和真主黨等區域威脅的軍事行動已取得重大成功。本文分析指出,雖然以色列的安全教義已趨向機械式威懾和主動打擊,但其軍事能力和生存根本上仍依賴於持續的國際合作,特別是來自美國和阿拉伯國家。政策意涵顯示,無論選舉結果如何,內部政治不穩定和日益增長的國際批評都會持續存在,因此任何未來政府都必須將解決關鍵內部問題(例如軍隊的規模和參與度)置於首位,以維護穩定。

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