ThinkTankWeekly

ASEAN, Still Toothless, Is Losing Its Faith in the U.S.

CFR | 2026-08-08 | china_indopacific

Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, United States

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English Summary

ASEAN is increasingly losing faith in U.S. reliability, viewing Washington's actions—such as arbitrary tariffs and geopolitical instability—as unpredictable and detrimental to regional stability. This disillusionment is evidenced by rising public sentiment polls that favor China over the United States across multiple ASEAN nations. Furthermore, the organization remains politically toothless on critical issues like Myanmar and the South China Sea disputes. Consequently, the traditional strategy of hedging between powers is becoming unsustainable, forcing Southeast Asian states toward a strategic realignment away from the U.S. security guarantee.

中文摘要

東盟國家對於美國的可靠性信心日益動搖,認為華盛頓採取之行動——例如任意關稅和地緣政治不穩定——缺乏可預測性,並對區域穩定構成危害。這種幻滅情緒體現在民意調查中,多個東盟國家更傾向支持中國而非美國。此外,該組織在緬甸危機和南海爭議等關鍵議題上仍顯得政治無力。因此,傳統的「權力平衡」(hedging)策略正變得不可持續,迫使東南亞國家開始進行戰略重組,逐步脫離對美國安全保障的依賴。

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