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Trading Places: The U.S. and Europe on China and Russia

CFR | 2026-10-09 | europe

Topics: AI, China, Europe, NATO, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

Europe is undergoing a major policy pivot, abandoning its historical 'third way' of balancing between the U.S. and China. This shift is evidenced by the proposal of a 'last-resort trade tool' by German and French leaders, designed to allow the EU to counter China's economic coercion, particularly regarding critical minerals. This move signals that Europe is willing to weaponize its single market to protect its industrial base from China's overcapacity and industrial policies. The implication is that Europe is moving toward a more aggressive, rules-based confrontation with Beijing, potentially aligning with U.S. strategic interests, provided the U.S. remains committed to a unified, assertive global front.

中文摘要

歐洲正在經歷一次重大的政策轉型,放棄了其歷史上平衡美國與中國的「第三條道路」。這一轉變體現在德法兩國領導人提出的「最後手段貿易工具」提案上,旨在讓歐盟能夠應對中國的經濟脅迫,特別是在關鍵礦物領域。此舉表明,歐洲願意將其單一市場武器化,以保護其產業基礎免受中國的過剩產能和產業政策的衝擊。其潛在含義是,歐洲正朝著與北京進行更具侵略性、基於規則的對抗邁進,前提是美國能夠持續致力於維持一個統一、堅定的全球戰線。

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