ThinkTankWeekly

Media Briefing: Previewing the NATO Summit

CFR | 2026-07-13 | europe

Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

The analysis argues that NATO faces an existential crisis due to perceived U.S. decoupling and uneven European commitment to collective defense. Key evidence includes calls for higher defense spending, coupled with US reviews of troop presence in Europe and allied nations' struggle to independently fill critical strategic gaps (e.g., air defense). For the alliance to remain viable, the summit must establish a clear roadmap for burden-sharing and reaffirm the credibility of the U.S. nuclear guarantee. Failure to address these structural deficiencies risks reducing NATO to an ineffective 'zombie alliance.'

中文摘要

該分析指出,由於感知到的美國脫鉤(decoupling)以及歐洲在集體防禦方面的投入不均,北約正面臨生存危機。關鍵證據包括要求提高國防開支、美國審查歐洲駐軍部署,以及盟國難以獨立填補關鍵戰略缺口(例如空防)。若欲使該聯盟保持可行性,峰會必須建立明確的負擔分攤路線圖,並重申美國核保護承諾的可信度。未能解決這些結構性缺陷,將可能導致北約淪為一個無效的「殭屍聯盟」。

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