The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
After the Strikes: The Prospects in Iran
English Summary
The discussion outlines complex post-conflict scenarios for Iran, shifting focus from military action to the delicate process of political transition and governance. Key concerns include the immediate risks to the civilian population and the necessity of international support to prevent a power vacuum. The central finding is that achieving accountability and justice requires sustained international engagement focused on civil society and transitional justice mechanisms. Strategically, this implies that external policy must pivot toward supporting democratic transition and human rights frameworks rather than solely anticipating regime collapse.
中文摘要
本次討論概述了伊朗複雜的戰後情景，將焦點從軍事行動轉向政治轉型與治理的微妙過程。主要關注點包括平民人口面臨的即時風險，以及國際支持對於防止權力真空的必要性。核心發現指出，要實現問責與正義，需要持續的國際參與，重點應放在公民社會和轉型正義機制上。從戰略角度來看，這意味著外部政策必須轉向支持民主轉型和人權框架，而非僅僅預期政權崩潰。
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